Timeline for Why were pre-election polls and forecast models inconsistent with the election of Donald Trump?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
11 events
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| S Nov 11, 2016 at 18:24 | history | suggested | Necreaux | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Nov 11, 2016 at 16:38 | review | Suggested edits | |||
| S Nov 11, 2016 at 18:24 | |||||
| Nov 11, 2016 at 9:21 | comment | added | fedorqui | @user4012 to me, many circumstances can explain this. First of all, what I note in my answer that the likelihood to vote for something "cool" makes people want to say it. Then, there is normally a moment of "fear": "oh yeah, I was going to vote for that people but now they are leading the polls, so let's take it more seriously: do I really want them to rule the country? It was just about a protest vote!". That is, very often leading the polls is counterproductive because it shows the potential voters that their vote can be somehow decisive and trigger their fears. | |
| Nov 10, 2016 at 19:09 | comment | added | BlueRaja - Danny Pflughoeft | Surely it's not that poll-takers lied, but that people who are more likely to vote for Trump are (for whatever reason) less likely to agree to take a poll. | |
| Nov 10, 2016 at 7:55 | history | edited | fedorqui | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Nov 9, 2016 at 17:27 | comment | added | Dunk | While it might sound "fun" to blame it on people not telling the truth to pollsters, it really doesn't make logical sense. While there are certainly some people who will intentionally lie. Realistically, in order to move the poll numbers by any appreciable amount, it would require large numbers of people to participant in the deception. I just don't see that as a realistic possibility without it becoming a news story unto itself. It is starting to become very evident that the press is really nothing more than propaganda for political parties and has almost no credibility remaining. | |
| Nov 9, 2016 at 15:21 | comment | added | user4012 | @fedorqui - I wonder if that was an instance of people just trolling the pollsters? "I am voting for the Pirates" sounds cool enough that I'd be tempted to say that just for fun value. | |
| Nov 9, 2016 at 13:57 | comment | added | Fiksdal | politics.stackexchange.com/questions/12521/… | |
| Nov 9, 2016 at 12:02 | comment | added | fedorqui | @MichaelKjörling yet another case! Few weeks ago, this also happened in Iceland general election with the Pirate Party at almost 30% in the polls finally getting 14%. | |
| Nov 9, 2016 at 12:00 | comment | added | user | The same thing, explained in the same way, happened in the Swedish general election in 2014. The Sweden Democrats (SD), which are controversial, got far more votes than the polls anticipated; the Greens (MP), which are the "feel good" party, got far less votes than the polls anticipated. | |
| Nov 9, 2016 at 10:56 | history | answered | fedorqui | CC BY-SA 3.0 |