Short term, his plan is raise the deficit which will continue to increase the debt significantly. The problem is, to pay down 20 trillion in debt, that requires a whole lot of surplus years and the US rarely operates with a surplus. It's also anticipated that with the baby boomers retiring, running a surplus is not expected in the next several years at least.
It's worth pointing out that there's a few ways to look at debt. Increasing GDP so that the debt is a smaller percentage of GDP has been argued as a method of paying down the debt. I don't think it's a good method because recessions murder that strategy and recessions, in my opinion, can't be avoided. It's not possible to maintain high GDP, contrary to what might have happened in the 1950s and 1960s - that was a different time.
It's also possible to address the debt by reducing but not eliminating the deficit. If the debt is currently 20 trillion and the deficit is reduced to 100 billion per year (counting interest on the debt, of-course), then in 50 years, the debt will be 25 trillion, in 100 years, 30 trillion. That's a real scenario where inflation should overtake the debt. It's a slow approach, but not unreasonable. Not many people realize that, but a significantly reduced deficit, even without a surplus, in time, would make the debt smaller at least, adjusted for inflation, even without paying it down, it in effect would grow comparatively smaller with a small enough deficit. But for now, our deficit isn't even close to that.
But the classical way to reduce debt is to run a surplus. My answer will focus on reducing the deficit, cause that's really where the issue lies. Imagine if you like, reducing the deficit to zero, or even, past zero into a surplus. Reducing the deficit is still the only way to address the debt (either that or going default, but I've never liked that approach).
It's possible, if GDP grows fast enough to decrease the deficit and/or debt while decreasing taxes. It's extremely unlikely though and while it's often suggested as a campaign promise that growth will reduce the deficit, it's rareit almost never turns out that way and essentiallyit's rarely (perhaps never) backed up by the congressional budget office.
Trumps plan, which is basically the far right's plan to reducing the deficit and, eventually the debt, is to (eventuallyat some point) reduce mandatory spending and by. By cutting social security, medicare and medicaid to more manageable levels. They don't have, that will perhaps turn the votes to addressdeficit into a surplus. His tax cuts won't do that now, and ithe'd be crazy to think they would. That's basically the far right plan.
That tends to be highly unpopular, so it's a long term game plan. Perhaps part of a negotiation Perhaps later on, maybe when they get another surge of senators or when there's a democrat in the white-house who can share the blame. All this is a future plan talk, not current plan.
Politics in America is one battle at a time. Trump's current battle will increase the deficit because he wants to cut taxes. I don't think he's even formulated a strategy on reducing mandatory spending. If he has, he's not shared it publicly. When politicians say "cut social security" or "cut medicare" they get killed in the polls and future elections, so very few say it. Paul Ryan has said it, and a few others, but it's rare.
Maybe his plan is to leave it for the next guypresident. Or, to cut entitlement spending or maybe he'll start talking about it (assumingassuming he wins a 2nd term), begin to address it around year 7. The unspoken truth is that there are democrats in Washington who recognize that entitlements are a real spending problem and needthat needs to, at least eventually, be cutaddressed. Both sides see it, but very few talkit's a hot potato to do something about it publicly. With
With low interest rates, the deficit is manageable and it can be addressed in the future. At current deficit rates, it won't stay manageable, but it's simplystill easier, for both parties, to push cutting entitlements down the line.
The big difference between the parties is the democrats want to increase taxes on the wealthy side by side with maybe, possible, at some point, enacting rarely discussed, future entitlement cuts and the republicans want to take a much bigger bite out of entitlements and cut taxes.
So, thereBut it is. Trumps short termshould be stated that Trump very well might have no plan is to increase the deficit because tax cuts is the battleat all. I'm simply assuming that he wantsshares the far-right approach of eventually cutting entitlements to win nowaddress the debt. Anyone
And, Anyone who tells you that tax cuts will lower the deficit has failed basic math.
As a sidebar, while 20 trillion sounds like an insurmountable number, with low interest rates, the debt is almosta lot more manageable and could be addressed over a long period of time. The trick is getting started. To get an idea what 20 trillion feels like, the nation's total wealth fell about 20 trillion during the mortgage crisis. It's since rebounded more than that most of the money collecting in the top 1%. Our nation certainly has much more than 20 trillion net worth so the nation isn't broke. The The government is just running on a boatload of borrowed money.
The hard part is working towards a balanced budget that both sides agree on. It's easier to tax less and spend more. That's not news. The real trick is responsibility and getting the budget balanced. The debt is still Then slowly chipping away at manageable levelsthe debt.
ugg - that's much too long. Somebody write a shorter, easier to read one please.