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As is, reads like Texas early voting surpasses all 2016 US voting, which isn't true per:https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.businessinsider.com/early-votes-united-states-presidential-election-fifty-percent-mark-2020-10
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bishop
bishop
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While pollsters do worry about the "shy voter" problem (people who lie about their political preferences), they do not correct for it. The shy voter problem may have been a factor in the 2016 election, but it was not the reason that pollsters failed to predict Donald Trump's election. Polling did properly predict the Hilary Clinton would win the popular vote. Having a plurality of the popular vote doesn't mean anything when it comes to presidential elections. Winning the Electoral College vote is all that matters. Where pollsters did fail in 2016 was in a proper prediction regarding who would vote in swing states, and in particular, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

There is a concern once again in 2020 of the shy voter problem, but this time around there is also a concern that there may be shy Biden voters. An even greater concern is the huge early voting and absentee voting in 2020. As an example, more people have already voted in Texas in 2020, three days prior to Election Day, than the total number of peopleTexans who voted in the 2016 Presidential Election. The unknown voter problem is widely perceived to be a much more significant issue than is the shy voter problem.

While pollsters do worry about the "shy voter" problem (people who lie about their political preferences), they do not correct for it. The shy voter problem may have been a factor in the 2016 election, but it was not the reason that pollsters failed to predict Donald Trump's election. Polling did properly predict the Hilary Clinton would win the popular vote. Having a plurality of the popular vote doesn't mean anything when it comes to presidential elections. Winning the Electoral College vote is all that matters. Where pollsters did fail in 2016 was in a proper prediction regarding who would vote in swing states, and in particular, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

There is a concern once again in 2020 of the shy voter problem, but this time around there is also a concern that there may be shy Biden voters. An even greater concern is the huge early voting and absentee voting in 2020. As an example, more people have already voted in Texas in 2020, three days prior to Election Day, than the total number of people who voted in the 2016 Presidential Election. The unknown voter problem is widely perceived to be a much more significant issue than is the shy voter problem.

While pollsters do worry about the "shy voter" problem (people who lie about their political preferences), they do not correct for it. The shy voter problem may have been a factor in the 2016 election, but it was not the reason that pollsters failed to predict Donald Trump's election. Polling did properly predict the Hilary Clinton would win the popular vote. Having a plurality of the popular vote doesn't mean anything when it comes to presidential elections. Winning the Electoral College vote is all that matters. Where pollsters did fail in 2016 was in a proper prediction regarding who would vote in swing states, and in particular, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

There is a concern once again in 2020 of the shy voter problem, but this time around there is also a concern that there may be shy Biden voters. An even greater concern is the huge early voting and absentee voting in 2020. As an example, more people have already voted in Texas in 2020, three days prior to Election Day, than the total number of Texans who voted in the 2016 Presidential Election. The unknown voter problem is widely perceived to be a much more significant issue than is the shy voter problem.

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David Hammen
David Hammen
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While pollsters do worry about the "shy voter" problem (people who lie about their political preferences), they do not correct for it. The shy voter problem may have been a factor in the 2016 election, but it was not the reason that pollsters failed to predict Donald Trump's election. Polling did properly predict the Hilary Clinton would win the popular vote. Having a plurality of the popular vote doesn't mean anything when it comes to presidential elections. Winning the Electoral College vote is all that matters. Where pollsters did fail in 2016 was in a proper prediction regarding who would vote in swing states, and in particular, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

There is a concern once again in 2020 of the shy voter problem, but this time around there is also a concern that there may be shy Biden voters. An even greater concern is the huge early voting and absentee voting in 2020. As an example, more people have already voted in Texas in 2020, three days prior to Election Day, than the total number of people who voted in the 2016 Presidential Election. The unknown voter problem is widely perceived to be a much more significant issue than is the shy voter problem.