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International Recognition Supports Lower, Stable Oil Prices

The U.S. has also had non-Jewish immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa since the 18th century, but immigrants to the U.S. from this region have been disproportionately non-Muslim relative to the source populations and the Muslim population of the U.S., until the last few decades, has had a much larger Jewish population than its Muslim population. Further the Jewish population of the U.S. has been highly concentrated in the Northeast and a few other population centers in the U.S. that has made it possible for Jewish culture and Zionist (i.e. pro-Israel) sentiment in those communities to remain strong. In contrast, the U.S. Muslim population, even has it has grown in recent decades has been more diffuse and less well established at a community scale.

There is also cultural similarity and comfort between the U.S. and Israel. Israel is a country of people who mostly have European ancestry, like most Americans, and unlike other peoples of Southwest Asia and North Africa, and has one of the most advanced economies in the region. This has fostered some sense of relatively likemindedness with Israel that is not shared with other countries in the region.

So, U.S. political factions that care about Israel one way or the other have historically been strongly pro-Israel.

As a result, since at least the 1970s, the U.S. has been the leading political patron of Israel in world affairs for most of its history. Therefore, securing international recognition for Israel and preserving its long term existence has been a widely shared goal of American diplomacy on a bipartisan basis which these effects help advance.

While these figures are somewhat dated, the general trend in U.S. military transfers has held steady in this region of the world.

International Recognition Supports Lower, Stable Oil Prices

The U.S. has also had non-Jewish immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa since the 18th century. But immigrants to the U.S. from this region have been disproportionately non-Muslim relative to the source populations, and until the last few decades, the U.S. has had a much larger Jewish population than its Muslim population.

Furthermore, the Jewish population of the U.S. has been highly concentrated in the Northeast and a few other population centers in the U.S. that has made it possible for Jewish culture and Zionist (i.e. pro-Israel) sentiment in those communities to remain strong. In contrast, the U.S. Muslim population, even as it has grown in recent decades has been more diffuse and less well established at a community scale.

There is also cultural similarity and comfort between the U.S. and Israel. Israel is a country of people who mostly have European ancestry, like most Americans, and unlike other peoples of the Middle East and North Africa. Israel also has one of the most advanced economies in the region, with an economy that is more similar to that of the U.S. These similarities have fostered some sense of relatively likemindedness with Israel that is not shared with other countries in the region.

So, of the U.S. political factions that care about Israel, one way or the other, these factions have historically been predominantly strongly pro-Israel.

As a result, since at least the 1970s, the U.S. has been the leading political patron of Israel in world affairs. Therefore, securing international recognition for Israel and preserving its long term existence has been a widely shared goal of American diplomacy on a bipartisan basis. Efforts to secure international recognition of Israel helps advance these goals.

The international military conflicts mostly subsided after the Camp David Accords negotiated by the U.S., in which Egypt recognized Israel in exchange for a stream of foreign aid to Egypt, basically as a bribe, in order to maintain peace with Israel, which the U.S. has maintained since then. A similar arrangement was reached with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. has continued to provide foreign aid to Israel to help prevent its annihilation which could have been as devastating to the Jewish people as the Holocaust. Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are now one of the primary foreign aid recipients of the U.S., something that peace in the Middle East secured by wider recognition of Israel by its neighbors could mitigate.

The international military conflicts mostly subsided after the Camp David Accords negotiated by the U.S., in which Egypt recognized Israel in exchange for a stream of foreign aid to Egypt, basically as a bribe, in order to maintain peace with Israel, which the U.S. has maintained since then. A similar arrangement was reached with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. has continued to provide foreign aid to Israel to help prevent its annihilation which could have been as devastating to the Jewish people as the Holocaust. 

Israel, Jordan and Egypt are now some of the primary foreign aid recipients of the U.S., something that peace in the Middle East secured by wider recognition of Israel by its neighbors could mitigate. Saudi Arabia is a major source of U.S. military sales for similar reasons.

Globally in 2018, the United States spent over $47 billion in foreign aid ($1 billion more than 2017). Nearly 37% of that budget went to just ten countries:

1. Afghanistan ($5.94 billion)
2. Israel ($3.11 billion)
3. Jordan ($1.67 billion)
4. Egypt ($1.23 billion)
5. Iraq ($1.18 billion)
6. Ethiopia ($878 million)
7. Syria ($835 million)
8. Kenya ($824 million)
9. Nigeria ($820 million)
10. South Sudan ($789 million).

It’s also worth noting the breakdown between economic and military spending in these countries: Of the roughly $17.3 billion foreign aid dollars given to the top 10 countries, about 57% of it ($9.77 billion) was designated as military funds. In comparison, overall US foreign aid allocated to military funding was just 28.8% (or $13.5 billion) of its foreign aid budget in 2018.

Peace also reduces pressure to make U.S. military sales to uncertain Middle Eastern arms trade partners who insist on the sales in order to refrain from attacking Israel. The table below shows that those sales on essentially both sides of a potential Middle East war in the future are substantial.

U.S. Arms Transfers 1997-1999 out of $91,485 million total (Western Europe, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea make up most of the rest of U.S. arms transfers):

Most countries recognize their mutual sovereignty diplomatically, and a large share of international wars involve countries that do not recognize another country's sovereignty over some or all of its territory.

International recognition ends this primary justification for war with Israel which gave rise to wars with its neighbors in which Israel prevailed in 1948, 1967, 1973, and to a Palestinian insurgency and at times terrorism campaign that has continued on and off (but mostly on) since then.

Peace in the Middle East, which is furthered by wider recognition of Israel, also keeps oil prices stable, something that has historically been critical to the U.S. economy, which was heavily dependent upon foreign oil until the last couple of decades.

The Practical Importance Of International Recognition

Most countries recognize their mutual sovereignty diplomatically, and a large share of international wars involve countries that do not recognize another country's sovereignty over some or all of its territory.

In international diplomacy, not recognizing a country's existence is the metaphorical (and sometimes literal) equivalent of pointing a loaded gun at it at all times, whether or not the non-recognizing country actually fires it. It can escalate to war with little provocation on short notice and requires constant military vigilance on the part of the unrecognized country.

The unwillingness of its neighbors to recognize Israel gave rise to wars with its neighbors in which Israel prevailed in 1948, 1967, 1973, and to a Palestinian insurgency and at times terrorism campaign (with meaningful foreign support from Israel's neighbors) that has continued on and off (but mostly on) since then.

International recognition ends one primary justification for international war against Israel, making peace more likely.

International Recognition Reduces The Pressure To Provide Foreign Aid

International Recognition Supports Lower, Stable Oil Prices

War in the Middle East drives up oil prices. Historically, low oil prices have been critical to the U.S. economy, which was heavily dependent upon foreign oil until the last couple of decades. Peace in the Middle East, which is furthered by wider recognition of Israel, tends to keeps oil prices stable and low. Since this is perceived as good for the U.S. economy, international recognition of Israel is seen as providing long term security for the U.S. economy.

Why Does The U.S. Politically Supports Israel's Continued Existence?