12

Here is the section of the map from this answer, (that appeared in Pravda back in 2009):

enter image description here

In this map, the normally expected territory of Ukraine is roughly divided into 2 parts, the right side (with Crimea) being "integrated into Russian Federation" well beyond the current front line, while the left side being "Ukrainian Republic of Russian Union" that does not sound much different. There is also a tiny stripe of the left still labelled "Ukraine" as if nothing had changed.

This is before Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, but also well after 1991 when Ukraine gained independence. Looks like even at that time the publishers of the map were seeing near all territory of Ukraine as the part of Russia. Was it ever such a partitioning in 2009, or is this just an ordinary piece of propaganda? Why did they leave the stripe on the left out of Russia?

0

3 Answers 3

12

The map has a bit of a history. This article sources the map from a Pravda article (no longer available online), but claims it is originally from Italian Limes magazine, and a basically identical one actually has been published as Euroamerica vs. Eurussia with the caption "Obama's nightmare: EuRussia".

enter image description here

It is used in two editorials, no. 6/2008, and no. 5/2009. The first one is behind a paywall, but a short excerpt and an explanation of the map was published in a blog post dated 18/11/2008. A shortened translation (with DeepL):

The growing interdependence between Central and Western Europe and Russia and the consolidation of the Russian zone of influence are seen by the US as dangerous drifts.

...

The map illustrates the situation that Obama's new presidency will face in its dealings with Europe. The element of greatest concern for the United States is the expansion of influence that Russia intends to promote by exploiting its position as the official gas supplier to the Old Continent. Starting from this situation of leadership within the 'Gas Opec', Putin and Medvedev elaborate the Russia Project, which would foresee the reintegration of some territories into the Russian Federation (Transnistria, south-eastern Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan), the co-option of countries into a possible Russian Union (Belarus, western Ukraine, Armenia with annexed Nagorno Karabakh, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan) and the stipulation of a military alliance with Uzbekistan. Moscow can count for now not only on the 'spoils of war' of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but also on the support of the members of the 'Friends of Russia' Club, of which Germany seems to be the most influential exponent. The United States, to counter these ambitions, can instead rely on the Euro-American nuclei, as well as on the enemies of Eurussia: Great Britain, Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, Sweden and Georgia.

4
7

So, just to add a bit more clarity here on the Limes issue. It's an Italian magazine that publishes in both Italian and English. The reason for this is a bit obvious if look that its editor/director, Lucio Caracciolo, is a committee member of the Italy–USA Foundation, according to Italian Wikipedia.

The map (as a whole) appears to have been first published in the Italian in issue 6 of 2008, which was dedicated to Obama's policies and challenges (issue cover is "Obama Project"). Wikipedia claims that the magazine is monthly, but it seems to me it might have been bimonthly then, judging by the dates of the accompanying online articles (although maybe there's a publication delay/embargo, I'm not sure). Anyhow, the first mention of the map online (in Italian) seems to be in a Nov 2008 abbreviated editorial (snippet) apparently extracted from that aforementioned issue. Later on, the same editorial/article was translated and published online [in a longer/full version] in English in Jan 2009. The editorial that accompanies the map (itself credited to Laura Canali, who normally draws maps for the magazines) has text bylined to Caracciolo himself. Here's the relevant portion of the English translation given by the magazine itself:

The idea of integrating, bit by bit, every small and medium-sized piece of the former Soviet territory into the West, thereby isolating Russia, should in theory have been to able to rely on the willingness of the Atlantic alliance – and particularly its leader – to protect the new or aspiring members. However, the folly of Saakashvili exposed the inconstancy of American assurances. Not only do Georgia and Ukraine now seem further removed from NATO, but the Atlantic alliance itself was publicly divided over the Caucasian ordeal.

The result is that two geopolitical phenomena, which to Obama must seem like dangerous trends, have become more marked. These are the growing interdependence between central-western Europe (particularly Germany) and Russia (see Coloured Map 4), and the development of a Muscovite sphere of influence within and even beyond the borders of the previous Soviet bloc (taking in the Balkans, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa). Indeed, the proposed “great gas trojka” between Russia, Iran and Qatar, announced on 21 October in Tehran by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, is just the latest most ominous manifestation. A cartel between the holders of 56% of world reserves of blue gold [T.N. the Russian nickname for gas] capable of dominating the gas market and controlling prices and supplies is bad news for Obama, who has at least paid lip service to the “energy independence” of the United States.

The bursting of the financial bubble has temporarily blunted the claws of – and perhaps chopped something else off – the geopolitical ambitions of Putin and Medvedev, both of whom now need to concentrate on the economic and social consequences of the stock market crash, the flight of foreign capital and, in particular, the collapse of oil prices. A crude oil price of 50 dollars a barrel would, for next year, mean watching half of over 500 billion dollars of reserves go up in smoke and reducing growth to minimal levels, ahead of a probable rise in oil prices in the medium term if only because of the fall in supply.

Obama could take advantage of this downturn to negotiate a modus vivendi with Putin and Medvedev, that avoids causing an unofficial rift in Europe (Eurussia versus Euramerica) and cuts short any ambitions to structure Sino-Russian cooperation along strategic lines. This latter scenario has, up till now, been unpalatable to both giants, who are suspicious if not averse to each other, yet not above engaging in tactical manoeuvring in order to keep the Americans under pressure.

Discussion of the map kinda ends there. The subsequent paras are about nuclear disarmament.

As for "Pravda.ru"/Russian version (not to be confused with the printed newspaper Pravda--they have different owners), that appears to have been posted on their forum rather than appear even in some more spiffy article on Pravda.ru. The forum thread also clearly credits Limes with the map. So the map was not Russian propaganda at its origin (although it depicted a bad case scenario from the pro-US perspective), although it may have been later used as Russian propaganda--I'm not too inclined to investigate the latter in more depth.

If anyone is curious, Limes also has a 2023 version:

enter image description here

5

All links in this answer are Russian propaganda sources.

These claims in the map are corroborated in a video uploaded to YouTube in 2013:

  • Кошмар Обамы - друзья и враги России в Европе (ТВ Центр). It translates to Obama's Nightmare - friends and enemies of Russia in Europe broadcast by TV Centre, owned by Moscow city administration.

  • English translation: "European political scientists are waiting for reunification with the USSR, of course not in full force [...] but after conducting a lot of research in modern geopolitics, they came to the conclusion that in the next 20-30 years, a Russian union will appear on the territory of the post-Soviet space, which will include the former union republics, primarily Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and then Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Tajikistan. The entry of the Baltic states into this union is completely excluded, but for Ukraine, European political scientists predict the disintegration into three parts of the east, Crimea will enter the Russian union, central Ukraine will become its ally and partner, and only Galicia will try to be independent at all costs."

  • Relevant timestamps: 0:37 to 1:01 and 6:38 to 6:53.

enter image description here

Further, according to topwar.ru, the map is attributed to the "Heartland: Eurasian review of geopolitics" publication, the English-language sister site of the Italian Limes newspaper.

The publication Heartland: Eurasian review of geopolitics, published a map of Friends and enemies of Russia, calling it Obama's nightmare. It reflects the expansionist aspirations of Russia.

According to “Heartland: Eurasian review of geopolitics”, the main thing weapon The Russian Federation is its “pipe”, that is, its energy projects (“South and North streams”) and already existing highways for the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe.

It is with this “weapon” that Moscow influences the alignment of forces in Europe. According to the publication, President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin have a secret plan called “Project Russia” and they consistently put it into practice. The goal of this project is the creation of the “Russian Union”, the integration of part of the republics of the former Soviet Union into the Russian Federation.

According to this plan, a part of Ukraine — Eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula (it will be divided into three parts), Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan should be part of the Russian Union. In addition, under the "hand" of Moscow will be Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan.

Ukraine, as already mentioned, will be split into three parts - the East and the Crimea will be part of the “Russian Union”, Central Ukraine and Kiev will be an ally of Moscow, only part of Western Ukraine - Galicia will remain “independent”.

Sources:

5
  • The web.archive version of the Heartland website shows the map as a teaser picture for this article
    – ccprog
    Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 15:38
  • ...and here is the map itself
    – ccprog
    Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 15:40
  • @ccprog Indeed, both our answers are in agreement. The topwar page references article 1294 in addition to 817 (the map you linked in above comment) of Heartland. Do you have the link to the 1294 article? If so, I will update my answer to reflect this. Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 15:42
  • web.archive.org/web/20140806041745/http://temi.repubblica.it/…, although the video seems to be missing.
    – ccprog
    Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 15:51
  • @ccprog I've added the sources. FWIW the English version of the map is displayed in the YouTube video 6:38-6:53 Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 16:05

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .