A recent opinion poll suggests that the turning mood of American voters against Israel could somewhat negatively impact Biden more than Trump in the current Presidential elections in the US.
A press release from Gallup on March 27, 2024 states that the tiny majority support for Israel's action in Gaza has fallen drastically from 50% to 36% among Americans since November:
After narrowly backing Israel’s military action in Gaza in November, Americans now oppose the campaign by a solid margin. Fifty-five percent currently disapprove of Israel’s actions, while 36% approve. The latest results are from a March 1-20 survey ... Seventy-four percent of U.S. adults say they are following news of the Israeli-Hamas situation closely, similar to the 72% Gallup measured in November. One-third of Americans (34%) say they are following the situation “very closely.”
... All three major party groups in the U.S. have become less supportive of Israel’s actions in Gaza than they were in November. This includes declines of 18 percentage points in approval among both Democrats and independents and a seven-point decline among Republicans. Independents have shifted from being divided in their views of the Israeli military action to opposing it. Democrats, who were already largely opposed in November, are even more so now, with 18% approving and 75% disapproving. Republicans still support Israel’s military efforts, but a reduced majority -- 64%, down from 71% -- now approve.
... Biden’s approval rating for his handling of the situation in the Middle East, at 27%, is his lowest among five issues tested in the survey ... further contributing to Biden’s low rating on the Middle East situation, just 21% of independents and 16% of Republicans approve of his performance on the issue. - Majority in U.S. Now Disapprove of Israeli Action in Gaza
The press release concludes that the drastic shift in opinion among Independents and Democrats could negatively impact Biden if "those who care deeply about the issue" decide to just not vote at all - a lower voter turnout from supporters can definitely hurt the chances of Biden's re-election.
While the Gallup analysis strongly suggests that voters disgruntled with Biden (over Israel's invasion and genocide in Gaza) are most likely to express their anger by not voting at all, NBC News had reported last year (Oct 21, 2023) that many Arab / Muslim voters were also considering voting for other candidates and even reconsidering voting for Trump:
“Joe Biden has single-handedly alienated almost every Arab-American and Muslim American voter in Michigan,” said state Rep. Alabas Farhat, a Democrat whose district includes Dearborn, which is home to one of the largest Muslim and Arab American communities in the country.
... In rolling conversations in Michigan and beyond over the past two weeks, Muslim elected officials, activists and community leaders have coalesced around a plan to mobilize their constituents to vote next year — but also to encourage them to leave the top of the ticket blank in protest, according to multiple people involved in the discussions ... Others have heard from constituents who are planning to vote Republican because they feel that at least Republicans were honest with them about their carte-blanche support for Israel, while they feel duped and used by Democrats.
... Muslims make up only 1.3% of the U.S., about half the size of the Jewish population, but advocates argue their votes are critical in battleground states that may be won or lost on narrow margins, including Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia and Arizona ... “The president cannot win without the Muslim vote, point blank,” said Nada Al-Hanooti, the executive director of Emgage Michigan, the state chapter of a national nonprofit that works to engage Muslims politically. Al-Hanooti, who is Palestinian American, said she’s heard many people say they either won’t vote for president in 2024 or they’ll vote third party. - 'I will never vote Biden': Some Muslim Americans in a key swing state feel betrayed by the president
As the election contest heated up, this ire does indeed seem to have turned into a growing political protest within the Democrats. CBS News reported on March 11, 2024 - "Uncommitted" movement over the Israel-Hamas war spreads from Michigan to other states:
The protest-vote movement over President Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war has spread to several states and raised more questions about whether a small but significant number of Democrats angry at Biden might abandon him in November.
A week after 101,000 Michigan voters chose "uncommitted" on their ballots, so did roughly 263,000 voters in the five Super Tuesday states where similar ballot options were available. Minnesota, which had the most organized effort outside of Michigan, saw 1 in 5 Democratic voters mark the "uncommitted" option, a higher percentage than the 13% who voted uncommitted in Michigan ... And a "Leave It Blank" campaign has formed for Georgia's Tuesday primary that's intended to have the same effect, as is a "uninstructed" vote in Wisconsin's April 2 primary. Supporters of the protest argue anger over the war could endanger Biden's chances in swing states like Michigan against former President Donald Trump in their likely rematch.
"We wanted to show that these voters not only morally matter but politically matter as well. Because if they sit out the election, which it seems like many of them might, that would have severe consequences for Biden," said Waleed Shahid, a Democratic strategist who first organized the effort in Michigan.
The recent public reprimand of Netanyahu by Biden was likely motivated to mollify his voter base. However, this could be complicated by Netanyahu's unwillingness to placate Biden. As Elijah J Magnier, a political analyst and war correspondent with 35 years experience in the middle-east insightfully pointed out Biden is really stuck between 'a rock and a hard place' due to Netanyahu, and thus is taking a bigger political risk on this issue than Trump:
“This challenge comes from a position of strength, where Netanyahu is saying to Biden ‘You’ve lost the support of American Arabs, and if you stand against me, you will lose the support of Zionist [as well.]... are you going to risk this when you have strong opposition represented by [former US President] Donald Trump?... This is why Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t fear standing up and challenging Joe Biden.” - Netanyahu ‘Doesn’t Fear’ Biden With US Elections Looming.
Ofcourse, on this particular issue, voters cannot really trust Trump too. Israel's current leadership may actually prefer Trump to Biden as he doesn't care about following conventions, especially on foreign policy (Trump recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's capital, reversing long time U.S. policy). American voters who are appalled at the ongoing massacre and misery of the Palestinians don't have any real choice in the presidential candidates and can only find solace in some form of moral political protest with their vote.
