One of the reasons that some people are stated to be preferring Democrat over Republican party when voting is the fact that the former are perceived as supporting gay marriage, while the latter typically strongly oppose it.

(I'll leave aside the fact that Pres. Obama shared GOP's opinion on the topic till 2010 :)

But how much of an issue is it electorally?

More specifically, are there any research/polls/surveys that try to estimate how much of an electorate is lost to GOP on the margin because of same sex marriage issue?

In other words, the poll/survey would ask something similar to "If in the next election, GOP platform officially supported same sex marriage, would you change your vote from DNC to GOP" if all other positions stay the same? (And vice versa, how many people would stop voting "R" if such a change happened)?


1 Answer 1


Very little.

Consider that same sex marriage has come up on the ballot at least 34 times , and it failed 32 times. Same Sex Marriage - USA

(Note: WA and MD have also legalized gay marriage)

Same Sex Marriage just isn't a key issue for most voters. Take California, which you would think would have a high level of support for SSM, but 75% of Californians didn't consider it a key issue and of the 20 percent who would only vote for a candidate that shared their view it was split 50:50 for/against SSM.

  • 2
    @DVK, no. You missed the part that said, of those that considered it a key issue (I.e. support/against same sex marriage) in which they would not vote for a candidate unless their views matched regarding SSM, were split evenly. Their were just as many people who would vote against a candidate that supported SSM as those that would only vote for a candidate that opposed it. It is a wash.
    – user1873
    Commented Mar 5, 2013 at 4:41
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    Also that chart is way out of date. Please update it: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States
    – user1530
    Commented Mar 5, 2013 at 4:58
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    The question you should ask, is something along the lines of Did you NOT vote for candidate X who opposes gay marriage, and would you have voted for him had he not opposed it, and the opposite did you vote for candidate X who opposes gay marriage, and would you have NOT voted for him had he not opposed it Commented Mar 5, 2013 at 17:08
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    @user1873 - Actually as far as the government is concerned the difference is in name only. All of the protections, benefits, and liabilities that result from marriage exist in an Illinois civil union. The map is misleading to say the least. It should have something for states that allow civil union of same sex couples. Commented Mar 8, 2013 at 18:37
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    Yes why is it that gay rights groups want to enter into a religious bond in a church that decries their very actions as heretical. And why do they want to the government to try and force them to allow this? Commented Mar 9, 2013 at 2:48

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