0

The research paper here shows that for every inch of rain above normal levels, the Democratic party's margin in elections decreases by about 1 percentage point. What are some ways that the Republicans and Democrats can exploit this for electoral benefit?

closed as too broad by user1530, The Pompitous of Love, Brythan, bytebuster, user 1 Jun 4 '16 at 10:40

Please edit the question to limit it to a specific problem with enough detail to identify an adequate answer. Avoid asking multiple distinct questions at once. See the How to Ask page for help clarifying this question. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

4

They can't exploit this because correlation does not imply causation.

When you look at enough different sets of data, you can find the strangest correlations. But that doesn't necessarily mean that one of them is causally linked to the other.

It can also mean that both figures actually depend on the same third figure (so artificially influencing one won't affect the other). But it can also mean that it is just a complete coincidence that the numbers line up until now and there is no point in using knowledge about the development of one to predict future developments of the other.

In this case I expect the latter.

  • 2
    The effect here is generally thought to be that rain makes it harder to get to the polls and that Democrats are more impacted by difficulty getting to polls. This is presumably because urban Democrats are more dependent on public transit and walking than the more rural and suburban Republicans. – Brythan Jun 4 '16 at 2:35
  • 1
    Yet weather changes moods and focuses people on specific sorts of feelings. Perhaps when in a sunny sort of disposition, people are inclined to vote for supposed personal freedoms, and when feeling a bit more circumspect prefer a party with more of a history of supporting social safety nets and the like, is one possible explanation. The more obvious answer, short of inventing some sort of weather control device, would be to call elections on a rainy day. – Peter David Carter Jun 4 '16 at 12:25

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .