Is there a political Science study that looks at things like a country that is going through or has gone through a civil war or revolution and looks at the likelihood of a certain faction "winning" the civil war or revolution, and what the repercussions would be?


Yes Governments do this all the time. They pull together intelligence from various sources and have many analysts write up projections, and forecasts as well as suggested actions that the government should take. In the US the intelligence deemed most important is consolidated and written up to be included in the Presidents Daily Brief. Governments are secretive about what they actually think about most events. Only those forecasts that provide the government with a strategic advantage are usually released or leaked. Quite a few of these intelligence documents were released to WikiLeaks, though after the US Cracked down on their funding there have been few entities willing to try and fill the void left by the folding Wikileaks.

There is a company called Stratfor Global Intelligence that has carved a niche for itself in the area of providing intelligence assessments and forecasts to businesses and private individuals. Stratfor mines data and news from around the world and compiles them into forecasts that are available to anyone. It can be difficult for a person to read through much of the raw forcasts they provide and find the important pieces. But they do offer daily summaries for subscribers and a weekly and special report that is available to anyone wishing to subscribe to the newsletter.

Disclaimer: I am not affiliated with and am not reimbursed by the Stratfor or any of its affiliated companies to the best of my knowledge. I provide this referral in good faith based on my belief that it provides high quality intelligence services to private entities.

  • 1
    More specifically, see Stratfor's excellent analysis predicting the futility of Iran's "Green Movement" (or as Wiki calls it "Twitter Revolution"), or the ineffectiveness of opposition in Russia, or dissecting various factions in many states during Arab Spring or Lybia.
    – user4012
    Mar 27 '13 at 15:09
  • @DVK - about 8-10 years ago they had a piece predicting the return of Putin to power and the resurgance of the Soviet style of governing. They also were way ahead of the mortgage crisis and the banking melt down. They were sounding the alarms 4+ years before it happened. Mar 27 '13 at 15:15
  • 4
    +1 As one who has worked Intelligence in the past (nearly 10 years), I can tell you that the vast majority of the PDB comes from "open source" (meaning public) journalism. This analysis is the bread and butter of the CIA - the overwhelming majority of which are "armchair professors", not the cloak and dagger 007 "spies" you normally think of. Mar 27 '13 at 19:15

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