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Kyoto Protocol's signatory member nations are grouped as
It legally binding only on annex I and II nations.
So,
What will be the possible consequences if any annex I or annex II member nation does not follow the treaty? Are there any documented cases?
Also in any other treaties, has any country faced serious consequences for such failures?
Summary of consequences:
Non-compliance for the Kyoto Protocol is laid out in the Marrakesh Accords. The details are under section XV. Essentially, it requires the non-compliant nation to submit reports, corrective action plans, reduce second commitment emmisions by 1.3 times the overage, etc. They also lose the ability to trade greenhouse gas credits.
XV. CONSEQUENCES APPLIED BY THE ENFORCEMENT BRANCH
- Where the enforcement branch has determined that a Party is not in compliance with Article 5, paragraph 1 or paragraph 2, or Article 7, paragraph 1 or paragraph 4, of the Protocol, it shall apply the following consequences, taking into account the cause, type, degree and frequency of the non-compliance of that Party:
(a) Declaration of non-compliance; and
(b) Development of a plan in accordance with paragraphs 2 and 3 below.
- The Party not in compliance under paragraph 1 above, shall, within three months after the determination of non-compliance, or such longer period that the enforcement branch considers appropriate, submit to the enforcement branch for review and assessment a plan that includes:
(a) An analysis of the causes of non-compliance of the Party;
(b) Measures that the Party intends to implement in order to remedy the non- compliance; and
(c) A timetable for implementing such measures within a time frame not exceeding twelve months which enables the assessment of progress in the implementation.
The Party not in compliance under paragraph 1 above shall submit to the enforcement branch progress reports on the implementation of the plan on a regular basis.
Where the enforcement branch has determined that a Party included in Annex I does not meet one or more of the eligibility requirements under Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Protocol, it shall suspend the eligibility of that Party in accordance with relevant provisions under those articles. At the request of the Party concerned, eligibility may be reinstated in accordance with the procedure in section X, paragraph 2.
Where the enforcement branch has determined that the emissions of a Party have exceeded its assigned amount, calculated pursuant to its quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment inscribed in Annex B to the Protocol and in accordance with the provisions of Article 3 of the Protocol as well as the modalities for the accounting of assigned amounts under Article 7, paragraph 4, of the Protocol, taking into account emission reduction units, certified emission reductions and assigned amount units the Party has acquired in accordance with section XIII, it shall declare that that Party is not in compliance with its commitments under Article 3, paragraph 1, of the Protocol, and shall apply the following consequences:
(a) Deduction from the Party’s assigned amount for the second commitment period of a number of tonnes equal to 1.3 times the amount in tonnes of excess emissions;
(b) Development of a compliance action plan in accordance with paragraphs 6 and 7 below; and
(c) Suspension of the eligibility to make transfers under Article 17 of the Protocol until the Party is reinstated in accordance with section X, paragraph 3 or paragraph 4.
- The Party not in compliance under paragraph 5 above shall, within three months after the determination of non-compliance or, where the circumstances of an individual case so warrant,such longer period that the enforcement branch considers appropriate, submit to the enforcement branch for review and assessment a compliance action plan that includes:
(a) An analysis of the causes of the non-compliance of the Party;
(b) Action that the Party intends to implement in order to meet its quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment in the subsequent commitment period, giving priority to domestic policies and measures; and
(c) A timetable for implementing such action, which enables the assessment of annual progress in the implementation, within a time frame that does not exceed three years or up to the end of the subsequent commitment period, whichever occurs sooner. At the request of the Party, the enforcement branch may, where the circumstances of an individual case so warrants, extend the time for implementing such action for a period which shall not exceed the maximum period of three years mentioned above.
The Party not in compliance under paragraph 5 above shall submit to the enforcement branch a progress report on the implementation of the compliance action plan on an annual basis.
For subsequent commitment periods, the rate referred to in paragraph 5 (a) above shall be determined by an amendment.
There are I am sure several documented cases, since the eligibility list contains several nations whose status has changed (Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania, Romania, Ukraine). The Ukraine lost the ability to trade greenhouse gas credits was suspended as noted here.
Since October 12, 2011, participation of Ukraine in international trade in emissions of greenhouse gases has been temporarily suspended. Such decision was accepted by Committee on observance of the Secretary of The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in connection with “discrepancy of national accounting system of emissions of greenhouse gases to requirements of the Kyoto protocol”.
