How significant was Chernobyl in the collapse of the Soviet Union?

Question

In 2006, Mikhail Gorbachev called the Chernobyl accident the "real cause" for the collapse of the Soviet Union:

The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl 20 years ago this month, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later. Indeed, the Chernobyl catastrophe was an historic turning point: there was the era before the disaster, and there is the very different era that has followed.

How significant was the accident in the political climate of the era, and why?

Answer 1

Chernobyl could not have been the cause of the collapse. It's estimated cleanup costs were mere $15B (1.5% of GDP). Gorbachev is suffering from a cognitive bias: he is attaching too much importance to an event he is currently thinking about.

The main impact of Chernobyl was indirect: the failure of the authorities to cover up the disaster; the lies in the media; not canceling the May 1st festivities in Kiev - al this lead to popular disaffection and increased interest in alternative sources of information, including foreign radio.

The main reason for the Soviet collapse was its inability to outspend the US on defence, especially SDI. "Just 13 men believed that SDI was feasible: Reagan and the 12 Politburo members. That was enough to destroy USSR".

See also here.

Answer 2

The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl 20 years ago this month, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later. Indeed, the Chernobyl catastrophe was an historic turning point: there was the era before the disaster, and there is the very different era that has followed.

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The Chernobyl disaster, more than anything else, opened the possibility of much greater freedom of expression, to the point that the system as we knew it could no longer continue. It made absolutely clear how important it was to continue the policy of glasnost, and I must say that I started to think about time in terms of pre-Chernobyl and post-Chernobyl.

The price of the Chernobyl catastrophe was overwhelming, not only in human terms, but also economically. Even today, the legacy of Chernobyl affects the economies of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

This is a quote from Gorbachev's book I obtained online here. This would suggest Gorbachev is discussing the existential costs of the accident as much as the remediation/medical costs when assessing it's weight as an input on the dissolution of the USSR. I have read elsewhere he explains that USSR was at the time being stretched fiscally and economically — not by SDI — but by the war in Afghanistan.

While an unexpected bill of $18B may not seem like much today, he asserts it pushed the USSR past a fiscal tipping point from which it could not recover. Things had to change. Certainly oil prices and exports would have played their part but for him that was not the decisive blow, Chernobyl was it. I'm not sure why Gorbachev would favor a home grow disaster born of engineering incompetence or corruption over international markets conspiring against him, although I can understand why he would want the world not to believe the KGB fell for the SDI fictions. At the time SDI proposals were openly being discredited in international science journals as completely implausible given that very effective counter measures could be deployed for a fraction of the cost amongst other reason. (A miniscule ball-bearing at velocity is enough to destroy a trillion dollar satellite mounted laser weapon system for example).

Answer 3

The Soviet Union tried to cover the whole thing up, making only a vague announcement about the explosion after two days had passed; the world only became aware of the true horror of the accident once a radioactive cloud that had drifted into Sweden was sourced back to Chernobyl.

Just six years later the Soviet Union ceased to exist, as dissent amongst citizens, once completely satisfied with, and trusting of, their government, grew over issues such as public safety and political transparency.

Gorbachev states that Chernobyl was “perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.”