If the US presidential election abolishes the electoral college, would this mean that extremist voters (someone who fanatically supports a specific political direction and will vote whoever supports it the most) play more of a role in the election?
I assume that under the existing system, the focus is on swing states, which contain moderate voters, which means convincing moderate supporters of one candidate to vote for the other candidate instead, or convincing moderate supporters of one candidate to get out and vote for them, or convincing moderate supporters of the opposing candidate to stay at home on election day.
By contrast, I assume that if the vote is nation-wide, then candidates may be trying to convince extremist voters to vote for their candidate, rather than sitting it out because the candidate is too moderate, or voting for a minor party candidate instead.
However, this is an assumption. Is there any data indicating that abolishing the electoral college would cause extremist voters to play more of a role in the election?