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Which disadvantages does Russia fear?

  • news.yahoo.com/… With reference on these news I wanted to learn why Russia is so willing to stop the deal between Ukraine and the EU. It has to arise some disadvantages for Russia. – Gab Dec 18 '13 at 5:57
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    It's really quite much simpler than DVK says. The Ukraine sits on a quite large gas deposits along its shores. If you can appropriate that gas, you get very rich. Putin personally holds an estimated 4% of Gazprom, which makes him inofficially one of the richest men on this world, if not the richest. If he can get a hold of the Ukraine, he can get a hold of that gas via Gazprom. If the Ukraine approaches the EU, it approaches NATO as well. If the Ukraine joins NATO, there's no more Ukrainian territory (and the contained gas) that Putin can appropriate easily. Everything else is disinfo noise. – Quandary Oct 14 '14 at 19:41
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There are multiple reasons, both tactical and strategic.

The main ones are:

  1. Geopolitics.

    Basically, Russia has no natural defensive perimeter of its core. Thus, its permanent strategy is to surround itself with satellite states which provide defense in depth and natural defensive perimeters of their own. This is elaborated extensively on in Statfor writeups on Russia, if you want a more detailed look.

    If Ukraine is integrated into the West, Russia sees it as a strategic military threat - there's very little defense should Ukraine be a base of attack as opposed to a defensive buffer.

    In addition, Ukraine is being made an example of (as was Georgia earlier, in a somewhat different game). Other neighbors can see that they have more to lose by cutting ties with Russia than by making ties with the West, since Russia has both political resolve and effective methods to punish or reward.

  2. Economics of gas and oil.

    Ukraine is where a big pipeline from Russia to its energy clients in Europe goes through. Russia needs to control that pipeline.

    In addition, there are Gazprom's rights to develop and sell Ukrainian energy resources.

    UPDATE May 2014: This item was posted in Dec 2013... now, 6 months later, we have the news that the annexed Crymean oil and gas resources are being nationalized and given for free to GazProm. (src). My Nostradamus badge is pending.

  3. Economics overall.

    Russian goods would have to compete with EU goods. Without EU deal, if Ukraine is a member of "Customs Union", Russian goods have an advantage in Ukrainian market

  4. Demographics.

    Ukraine is basically a country split into two distinct demographics - Russia oriented ones (there is a large minority of 17.3% of ethnic Russians in Ukraine) and Europe oriented ones, especially in Western Ukraine[1]. Russian national policy as announced by Putin is to protect "Russians" everywhere, Ukraine included.

  5. Desire to screw things up for the West

    Overall, Russian psyche - and its government reflects that - is firmly in "world politics is a zero sum game" area. If something is good for the West/US, it must be bad for Russia, even if there aren't obvious downsides, so "sticking sticks into the wheels" (to use the Russian expression) of any Western-beneficial plans is something they can't pass up. See also: their support for Al-Assad (who is, objectively speaking, of VERY little tactical or strategic value to Russia, the port lease deal could be done with any of his successors); or for Saddam.

[1] E.g. last surveys showed nearly 50/50 split about EuroMaidan pro-EU-integration movement; and ~50/50 on EU vs RF integration. ref

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    Don't forget: Putin offered to the Chinese a deal where they would dump Fannie & Freddie bonds in 2008 and make the great recession in the US even more painful. – Evil Washing Machine Jul 2 '15 at 19:51
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    You forgot the historic reason : Ukraine shares a big part of its history with Russia and have the same roots, see "Rus". – Shautieh Mar 28 '16 at 5:19
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    gave a -1 for the fifth reason, which is completely unsubstantiated. Could you cite any serious studies regarding the "Russian psyche" besides mainstream newspaper editorials and op-eds (or where do you get this kind of explanations from)? – jjdb May 17 '17 at 13:12
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    @jjdb - growing up there beats pretty much any study by a westerner (or a newspaper editorial :) – user4012 May 17 '17 at 13:20
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I would summarize it the following way.

  • Basically, Prometheism. Prometheism is an anti-Russian ideology invented in Poland during the 1910s aimed to disintegration of the Russian Empire and later, the Soviet Union. The Poles put an aim to help any separatist movements inside Russia and to support anti-Russian attitude among Russian neighbours. Prometheism is still actual, for example, on November 22, 2007, at Tbilisi, Georgia, a statue of Prometheus dedicated to Polish President Lech Kaczyński was opened by anti-Russian Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. In the 1990s Russia experienced a bloody war with separatists in Chechnya and the separatists at the time were supported by anti-Russian forces from Ukraine.

  • Fear of a "Color Revolution". A set of the West-inspired color revolutions happened in Ukraine, Kyrgyztan, Georgia, attempted in Belarus and Russia. More bloody rebellions happened in Libya, Egypt and Syria. The rebellious winners in Libya after taking power provided help to a similar insurrection in Syria. Russia does not want this to happen in Ukraine again and does not want it to become a step for exporting the revolution to Russia.

  • Fear of possible revision of the consequences of WWII. Currenty the opposition forces who rally against the government in Ukraine, admire the pro-Nazi Ukrainian fighters of WWII. This may lead to eventual re-habilitation of Nazism, as it happened in the Baltic states. In Baltic states Russian language speakers (up to 40% of the population) were stripped of citizenship (in violation of Article 15 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights) and were instituted apartheid regimes. Re-evaluation of WWII outcome and rehabilitation of Nazism can lead to territorial claims to Russian territory and demands for material reparations.

  • Economic connections between Russia and Ukraine. There are multiple and dense connections between Ukraine and Russia. For example, most of the planes designed by the Ukrainian design bureau Antonov produced in Russia, while those produced in Ukraine use Russian parts. On the other hand, many of the Russian helicopters, including the military ones, use Ukrainian-made engines. Ukraine is also an important transit country for Russian oil and gas to Europe. The practice showed that after anti-Russian regimes were installed in the Baltics, the transit through those countries became next to impossible.

  • Fear of NATO expansion. Expansion of NATO will make Russia vulnerable to an attack by NATO forces. In recent years NATO showed it is not self-restrained from attacking independent countries, such as Yugoslavia and Libya. Also Russian military industry would be unable to use the Ukrainian parts legally as produced by a probable adversary.

  • Competing projects of Russia-centered economic blocks on the post-Soviet space. Participarion in both Customs Union and EU at the same time is impossible. For example, the German kanzler Angela Markel has recently underlined that Ukraine cannot participate in two customs unions at the same time. Absence of Ukraine in the Customs Union may undermine the very idea and make it less attractive to other CIS countries.

  • Personal connections and benefits for Russian and Ukrainian citizens. There are multiple mixed families between Russians and Ukrainians and many perceive the both people as parts of one due to common culture and history. The association of Ukraine and EU may complicate the crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border and break other ties. For example, as a Russian citizen, I received from the Russian government free recreation tours to Ukraine, to Crimea and Odessa before the first Color Revolution. After it happened, such tours became unavailable due to stopped cooperation between the governments. Still Crimea remains one of the most popular vacation places for Russians.

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    @Gabriel Russia does not want Prometheism or something like this to become state ideology in Ukraine (as it happened in the Baltics and Georgia). – Anixx Dec 18 '13 at 22:13
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    @DVK "Украина не ограничена в сроках подписания соглашения об ассоциации и зоне свободной торговли (ЗСТ) с ЕС, но участвовать одновременно в двух таможенных союзах она не может, заявила канцлер ФРГ Ангела Меркель в пятницу на пресс-конференции по итогам саммита ЕС в Брюсселе." 1prime.ru/Politics/20131220/773592310.html – Anixx Dec 20 '13 at 16:15
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    Polish hatred towards Russia for past deeds is so unreal. Using the same scale Russia should nuke Germany for 1917 revolution and WWII invasion (or at least not to be major trade partners). – lowtech Mar 17 '14 at 19:20
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    "In Baltic states Russian language speakers (up to 40% of the population) were stripped of citizenship"? Sure about that? At least in Latvia the problem is those that were citizens of the Soviet Union and after the fall of SU did not become citizens of Russia nor of Latvia. – liftarn May 13 '14 at 9:02
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    @S Vilcans in the USSR they were citizens of Latvian SSR. – Anixx May 13 '14 at 9:05
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Everything is about money and power of course. Nothing about "democracy", "joining to EU", and other media bullshit.

1) Most of Ukrainian economic is a part of Russian economic. At least we bought most of Ukrainian industry's production. With war and without Russian market Ukraines GDP falls ~50% down last 2 years. Just imagine - falls down ~two times!

2) Russia had mutual open markets with Ukraine. If Ukraine would open its markets to EU this would lead to uncontrolled traffic of EU productions on Russian market through Ukraine (without any standard taxes). This really means discriminating Russian production on its own market. EU and Ukraine wins, Russia loses. Why you think we want that?

3) Ukraine want both open markets with Russia and with EU. They want to make some margin on EU-Russia trade. EU wants that too. The actual problem is they want to make business on Russian loses, without respecting Russian interests.

4) Ukraine is under partial control of US politics. At least Ukraine government can make decisions, valuable for US but hurting Ukraine itself. The most important was the solution to stop rent of Crimea naval bases by Russia in 2017 and provide these bases to US. That decision would make Russian naval forces value in Black sea down to zero.

I don't understand why US, EU, and Ukrainian politics decided we will allow all this crazyness to become reality. Of course not. This is combined attack on Russian interests. And we will defend our markets and our naval fleet in Black sea (which is actually Mediterranean naval fleet) by all means.

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    Welcome to Politics.SE. This post would benefit from some prooflinks to back the claims within. Note, statements like "just imagine!" are not sufficient proofs. Also, there were no "mutual open markets" with the Russia who randomly set embargo on various products; consider "gas war" of 2009 or "milk war" of 2005, 2008, and 2011, to name some. – bytebuster Oct 21 '16 at 13:47
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    people who made it happen got what they wanted: without Ukraine Russia is not empire. Putin took Crimea and Ukraine became like another baltic republic in respect of politics towards Russia. Ukraine will eventually split and things should get back to normal - unless Clinton would do something really stupid if elected. SO at the end it is fair game: Crimea vs Ukraine, no more last part of USSR. But don't think that Putin control situation, Russia is strong, something depends on Russia etc. Russia is weak and dying country with corrupted rulers on all levels. – lowtech Oct 22 '16 at 17:27
  • Russia is weak and dying country with corrupted rulers on all levels. Navalny is only hope - very stupid to suspect someone with brother in jail to be puppet of CIA or just usual jorno – lowtech Oct 22 '16 at 17:33
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There are balance of power considerations. For instance, modern Russia has only 140 million people. If the old Polish-Lithuania Commonwealth (from the Middle Ages) were reconstituted with Poland, the Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states, it would consist of a nation of about 100 million people that would be a threat to Russia.

To further illustrate the point, in 1941, there were about 85 million Germans (counting Austrians) and 170 million Soviets, of which about half were Russian, and half were non-Russian. If Germany had cast its invasion of the Soviet Union as a war of "liberation" (and claimed, we are only out to liberate the non Russian Soviet states from Russia), it could have created a buffer zone of Ukraine and other non Russian states that would form a strong alliance against "Russia."

Put another way, the Ukraine has historically been Russia's "safety belt" vis-a-vis Europe. Allied with Europe, America, Germany, or some other power against Russia, it could be very threatening.

  • This is irrelevant because Poland is now part of the EU which already has more people. – Anixx Feb 22 '14 at 18:13
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    this all irrelevant because if Russia would be attacked by NATO then Russia will just nuke them triggering nuclear war. Russian army is too weak. That's why no west goverment would try to really threaten Russia. So no need to 'safety belt' around Russia. All major threats for Russia are from within - corruption and demography. Putin just took back Khrushev 'gift' -- and that's all. – lowtech Mar 17 '14 at 19:04
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    Historically, it was a Russia. The Galitsian principia was called a Russian kingdom when Poland took over it during mongolian occupation of the the Eastern Russia. – Little Alien Oct 22 '16 at 15:19
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    @lowtech Nobody tries to threaten the Russia? On which planet do you live? No west goverment would try to really threaten Russia. US top general says that war is 'almost guaranteed' youtube.com/watch?v=-wCwJ8pfXXo. Clinton says that it is going to start a war at every moment. You say what you say only because you are not informed by means of your propaganda. – Little Alien Oct 22 '16 at 15:28

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