What exactly did the Republicans win from ending the shutdown?

Question

I was listening to 538 podcast about shutdown end, and they made it sound like their opinion is that on balance, Democrats didn't really win anything meaningful (compared to not having started shutdown) (leaving aside their main opinion that shutdowns don't really seem to matter much in the big scheme of political things long term).

But what I don't quite get is, what did the Republicans win? They will have to vote on DACA slightly later down the road by like 2-3 weeks, but they would STILL have to vote, and if the same views persist across these 3 weeks, they will merely have another 100% identical situation with a threat of shutdown when CR expires. Kicking the ball down the road by 3 weeks seems not much of a win to me - and given the promise to vote on DACA, AND people blaming a shutdown, even a small one, on Republicans (according to polls), more of a loss than a win.

Answer 1

Kicking the ball down the road by 3 weeks seems not much of a win to me - and given the promise to vote on DACA, AND people blaming a shutdown, even a small one, on Republicans (according to polls), more of a loss than a win.

1. The government is open again. While there might be a "winner" and "loser" in public polling, everyone loses sooner or later in a full shutdown. In 2013, the Obama administration shut down the national parks when the GOP had their last government shutdown, which oddly included the open-access war memorials in Washington DC. Visiting veterans openly moved past the barricades, a move supported by some Democrats

   Notably, GOP congressmen and women were not the only members out supporting the World War II veterans today. Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin was also at the memorial this morning lending his support to the group of veterans.

2. The Democrats failed to gain momentum on the DACA issue. Democrats knew that the GOP typically takes blame in shutdowns (all prior shutdowns were instigated by them), and while that may have held true here, it didn't produce the desired momentum shift

   Yet the shutdown is no clean political win for Democrats. Americans don’t necessarily approve of the party's strategy to insist on a legislative solution for undocumented immigrants brought here as children before voting to reopen the government. In fact, both parties’ immigration stances — Democrats’ efforts to protect the so-called Dreamers and Trump’s insistence on funding a border wall with Mexico — are viewed by voters as less important than keeping the government open.

   Keeping in mind that #1 was doing real damage, the GOP still emerges from this in a stronger position on DACA negotiations, since Democrats couldn't move polls in their direction with a shutdown (which was their most potent tool). Democrats will be less likely to execute a shutdown solely for DACA, since neither the press, nor their constituents, will be as likely to buy that reasoning. There's an increased risk that another shutdown hurts the Democrats instead, and in an election year it's unlikely they would want to hurt their political brand.

Answer 2

Republicans did not repeal the filibuster. Since they couldn't avoid a shutdown without either Democratic support or repealing the filibuster, that's a win for those who would like to retain the filibuster to use in the future (when Republicans are next in the Senate minority).

Republicans did "win" the shutdown without giving Democrats anything they weren't already planning on giving them. So they came out of it with about as good a record as people could have expected going into it.

Republicans disconnected the continuing resolution from DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) for the moment. It's unclear what will happen when a DACA bill is brought to the Senate. They have the votes to pass one in the Senate. It's uncertain how many they lose due to whatever other immigration changes get included.

It's uncertain if Donald Trump will support it, although they may have the Senate votes to override a veto (67, and we know they have at least 60 if they can vote for cloture). It's uncertain if it can pass the House much less with veto override supermajority (two thirds of the votes cast, which can be up to 290 if all 435 Representatives vote).

Republicans also have five Democratic Senators in states that voted for Trump on record as supporting shutting down the government in order to avoid immigration reforms. This is relevant, because some of these same Senators may be on record as opposing the concept of shutting down the government over policy.

The next time Republicans vote for a shutdown, many Democrats will be limited in the criticism that they can make. Because the Republicans can now point to the Democrats as having supported a shutdown for policy unrelated to the budget.

The shutdown had minimal actual effect. It closed before a weekend and opened afterward. So other than a few closed parks and some closed federal offices on a Monday, there wasn't much impact.

Beyond all that, Republicans are kind of stuck. On the one side, there is pressure to do something DACA-related that will cover the Dreamers. On the other side, their base wants immigration changes that restrict immigration. While most Americans support DACA reforms, polling something like 75-20 in favor, there's still the 20. That's a small group, but it's one that is mostly Republican. This may not be a winnable situation for Republicans. They may lose either way. Perhaps the best that they can do is to minimize their losses.

How much do Republicans need to get in return for DACA to satisfy their base? We don't know yet. The longer they can delay, the more pressure there is to do something, as DACA expires in March. However, the Democrats feel that pressure more strongly than Republicans. While DACA is popular, even among Republicans, it is more popular among Democrats.

If Republicans offer up a bill that includes DACA and some number of immigration reforms, then it is unclear where that leaves Democrats. Republicans will have kept their promise. Will Democrats be forced to vote for a bill that they don't like? If the form of the bill is publicly popular, this could mean that the next time, people will blame the Democrats for the shutdown. They blinked this time, when polling suggested that Republicans were being hurt more. What would happen if the Democrats were the ones being hurt more?

And all that assumes that the polls showing the Republicans being hurt more were correct. It's possible that the Democrats had polling (or other information) showing that they were actually being hurt worse, possibly in the twelve states with competitive Senate elections. Remember that the national vote is essentially irrelevant in a midterm election. It's the state and district votes that will control the results.

Answer 3

For the record, I agree with you. I see this as more of a tie than a win. If, in 3 weeks, both parties have exactly the same leverage they have today, then it's not a victory for either side. It's just a nice 3 week return to normalcy for the people inconvenienced by the shutdown.

But people are saying it's a democratic/Schumer "cave-in", I think, for a couple reasons. One, the democrat's always cave in. At least, that's what they appear to do a lot. The republicans play rugby, the democrats play tag. That's perception, but perception drives what people think and say.

There's also the argument that DACA will, in time, be accepted by the republicans because the DACA immigrants are the most acceptable and Trump even said "We love the dreamers". If DACA is a given, what this push comes down to is what the democrats will give the republicans in return. The Republicans want a LOT in return for DACA, not just the wall, but end to the voucher program and (I should read up, but other stuff I imagine), but if DACA will pass anyway, the Democrat feeling is that they shouldn't get a lot in exchange.

So, If the public (slightly) blamed the republicans more than the democrats for the shutdown, then the feeling is that Schumer should have used that to his advantage, and held out, not called for a 3 week discussion while the government was funded. Because he didn't hold out, people say the Republicans won.

Now, I as I said, I don't agree with that because 3 weeks is practically nothing and maybe they can work something out, agree on it and send it to the house in that time, while avoiding the pain of a shutdown, so I don't see any clear losing in there. I see it as a better option, but, as you know, there's no shortage of people saying that Chuck was the one who caved.

I rather like this New Yorker summary. The whole thing is a unpredictable with what the more conservative house of representatives will pass, what Trump will sign and what Schumer will give in return. It's possible that McConnell will sign off on an agreement with Schumer and the bill will die anyway. Interesting times we live in. (but I digress).