I'm trying (I'm a simple citizen) to infer the intentions of my country's allies, and whether they will truly back us in case of a conflict with our aggressive (yet rich) neighbor or they'll intentionally provide inadequate support.
I've noticed that domestic media websites are often used to a great extent from governments in order to "prepare" public opinion of forthcoming events.
For example a country that prepares to attack can gradually increase propaganda through domestic media in order to predispose negatively their own population against the target-country (meaning less resistance, protests etc) as well as motivate their army and keep their conscripts' morale high by depicting their targets as unjust and aggressive.
Would reading the most popular media websites of my allies be a reasonable indication of their intentions? I'm not expecting this to be a 90%-accuracy predictor, but still it would set boundaries within which they will behave (eg. depicting the escalating conflict in a neutral way, while we are clearly defending ourselves is a strong indication they prepare to double-cross us)
If this would work, what other factors should I take into consideration? (eg. investigating each website's affiliation as well as audience)
Is there a better way to determine my allies' intentions?