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I was curious about surveys that examine reasons for the Brexit and what different factors determined individual votes.

In specific, was rising Islam in Europe one of the factors without which the referendum result would have been different?

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    Do you have any indication that it may have been a factor? – chirlu Feb 24 '18 at 19:27
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    Nigel Farages "Breaking Point" poster would be an indication. – OH GOD SPIDERS Feb 24 '18 at 19:49
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    There's likely to be a correlation in the UK between being pro-Brexit and being concerned about Islam. Whether there's a causation will be different. – Andrew Grimm Feb 24 '18 at 23:37
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    @OHGODSPIDERS This pro-Brexit commentator argues that the "Breaking Point" poster actually cost the Brexit side votes: theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/… – Thern Feb 25 '18 at 11:24
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    This seems like an objective question. It only requires survey data asking people's reasons for their vote. If no such survey has been done, indicate that as an answer. – Chloe Mar 5 '18 at 4:53
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There were plenty of polls which asked about peoples' reason for voting to leave. While the wider issue of immigration was an option on these polls, I'm not aware of any that asked mentioned Islam specifically. And while there will be some Leave voters who voted with this motivation (one example reported in HuffPost), it's likely that this person was part of a very small minority.

According to this Survation poll, conducted the week of the referendum, the top reasons for Leave voters deciding to vote that way are:

  • Levels of immigration to the UK (31.7%)
  • Sovereignty and who makes British laws (25.6%)
  • Public services, including the NHS (13.1%)
  • The British economy (8.1%)
  • Jobs, employment rights and regulations in the UK (4.6%)
  • British security and defence (4.2%)
  • Others/Don't Know (12.5%, various options collapsed for brevity)

While immigration was the top issue, the overwhelming share of that concern was about low-skilled immigration from Eastern Europe, not about Muslim immigration.

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    I downvoted because a citation is needed for the last sentence (the most important one). Also I am unaware or it’s likely that are not facts. – user15413 Feb 25 '18 at 5:33
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    It will be difficult to prove causations, but if immigration levels were really the primary concern, and only the EU immigration can be influenced by Brexit (non-EU immigration is not affected), it seems doubtful that Muslim immigration was a major point. Moreover, the large part of Muslims in Britain are from Pakistan, and there is practically no Pakistan immigration to the UK via EU. But then again, personal motivation is hard to judge, and not every decision may be a result of strict arithmetic operations. – Thern Feb 25 '18 at 11:19
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    but if immigration levels were really the primary concern, and only the EU immigration can be influenced by Brexit (non-EU immigration is not affected), it seems doubtful that Muslim immigration was a major point Some people has no issues raising unrelated and/or false claims to support their political position (e.g. the "banana shape" claims recently refered to). So the fact that the Brexit was only to affect EU immigration does not mean that people would not mix non-EU immigration into the fray... – SJuan76 Feb 26 '18 at 15:46
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    .. for example this question quotes a guy who justified voting for Brexit because his Thai wife was not allowed to migrate to the UK (at the same time that EU offered a -certainly slow- way to bypass UK immigration laws!) (@Nebr) – SJuan76 Feb 26 '18 at 15:50
  • "it's likely that this person was part of a very small minority" - Why? Where are your sources for that statement? – Dave Gremlin Feb 22 '19 at 9:42

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