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According to the New York Times today, Trump's tweets attacking Mueller may affect the Fall elections. Today's tweet attacks Mueller and mentions McGahn helping the special counsel.

How can these tweets affect the Fall elections? Are they saying that these tweets can sway voters' opinions? From what I've seen, any Republican politician backed by Trump in a Republican primary automatically wins.

So how would the tweets change any of this?

  • It will be interesting to see, but there's no sound way of telling. VTC as primarily opinion-based – Gramatik Aug 20 '18 at 19:58
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    Do you have a link to the NYT article? I'm also not sure your logic holds. Trumps backing being helpful in primaries might not translate into it being helpful in general elections. He is popular among Republicans, but independents and others may be turned off by his questionable attacks. – tim Aug 20 '18 at 20:00
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    Not a full answer, but anything a politician says could affect elections, and party specific primaries are very different from general elections since independents and swing voters are the voters who are most likely to be swayed by what a politician says. – Giter Aug 20 '18 at 20:03
  • I don't think this is primarily opinion-based. It asks how it is possible that this could be true, not whether it is true. – ohwilleke Aug 20 '18 at 20:11
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    Trump's endorsement can help candidates in primaries, since he has over an 80% approval rating within his party. However, it is also likely to enable far-right Republican candidates to defeat moderate Republican candidates in primary races. This has the effect of producing a candidate that is likely less fit to win in a general election, provided that the district or state is moderate. – John Aug 21 '18 at 3:21
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This is possible because the general election in the fall is not a primary election limited to Republicans.

Trump is quite popular with affiliated Republicans, but very unpopular with Democrats and independents. Trump has also reduced the number of people claiming to be Republicans in surveys considerably from the pre-Trump period.

Also, the popularity of the incumbent President has as much as a 50% or more impact on the outcome of down ticket members of his own party in off year elections.

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