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Polling data is readily available on how members of the Labour across Britain voted in the Brexit referendum: 65% for remain. However, this exit poll includes Labour voters across Great Britain*, and particularly the relatively large, and heavily pro-remain constituency of Labour voters in Scotland. (It also includes Labour voters in Wales, but there is less evidence that Welsh voters would be overly distinct from English ones) Given that Scotland's politics of Brexit are distinct from that of other parts of the UK, is there any polling data on how Labour voters in England specifically voted in the 2016 referendum?

*The Labour party does not contest elections in Northern Ireland, and I am guessing, perhaps incorrectly that YouGov did not survey the extremely small semi-official grouping of Labour members residing in NI

  • 1) Do you mean 65% remain? 2) Labour voters at which election? Note that in 2015 Labour actually did rather badly in Scotland by recent standards. – origimbo Sep 6 '18 at 23:02
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    Please note that "Labour party members" usually means people who are "members" of the Labour party (i.e. they have registered, pay quotes...) This is different from people identifying themselves as "Labour party supporters", and still different from "people who voted to the Labour party in the last elections" (of course, there is a considerable overlap between the three). The poll that you quote refers to the last group, not to "Labour party members". "Labour party voters" would be a way better expression. – SJuan76 Sep 7 '18 at 7:11
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The exit poll with the lowest level of breakdown that I'm aware of is the online poll of Lord Ashcroft, which performed fieldwork from the 21st to the 23rd June 2016 (the early voters being postal ones). This has cross tables, allowing two variable comparisons (e.g. reported vote in 2015 vs referendum vote, vote in 2015 versus geographical location or geographical location versus referendum vote), but doesn't generally allow for a three variable filter, for which you would need the non-aggregated data. However, luckily for you, it does include columns giving a breakdown by GE vote + referendum vote.

Looking at the third page of tables for question 16 (geographical location) on page 62, and hand calculating the figures excluding Scotland and Wales we see that the weighted estimate for the Remain voters for Labour voters in England is 63.1%, almost exactly the same as the polls estimate for Labour voters as a whole of 63.4%. In this case the increased support in Scotland (74%) is balanced by reduced support in Wales (59%) and the fact that the vast majority of voters live in England. Given the size of the poll, any difference is not statistically significant (as evinced by the larger discrepancy between the Ashcroft and Yougov polls).

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