Why doesn't the UK hold a second Brexit referendum to clarify what the public wants from Brexit?

Question

In following the ongoing Brexit drama I've seen claims that the first vote was unfair because it was only for yes/no and didn't say anything about what form an actual Brexit would take. This uncertainty obviously makes it hard for the British leadership to negotiate with the EU, since they don't know what their electorate actually wants.

Why doesn't the UK hold a second referendum to clarify what the electorate wants? The second referendum does not have to ask the same question as the first (leave/remain), but could ask for example whether the country should accept a hard Brexit if the EU refuses to compromise, or what areas it desires Theresa May to focus on most (e.g. trade, immigration, Northern Ireland, etc).

Edit: six months on, the UK parliament has held votes on what I had in mind. Questions such as "customs union with EU?", "Common market 2.0?" and "Second stay/leave referendum?" are all yes/no questions that can be answered by a referendum.

Answer 1

Ask 100 different leave votes (even leaving out remain) what they wanted from Brexit and you'll get 100 different answers. This underlines the folly of using Referenda for complex decisions as was highlighted by Ken Clarke before the Brexit vote.

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“Referendums have never settled anything. Unless they're backed by a powerful dictator in the case of Mussolini or Napoleon,”

Despite the widely discredited claims made during the campaign like the £350m Bus

"I am surprised and disappointed that you have chosen to repeat the figure of £350m per week, in connection with the amount that might be available for extra public spending when we leave the European Union." "It is a clear misuse of official statistics," Sir David added in his brief note.

and potentially illegal campaign funding Arron Banks, a substantial number of people are still unwilling to reexamine the situation. They no longer acknowledge that

If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy. - David Davis

The whole negotiation process has charitably been rushed and mishandled. The referendum campaign included no clear idea what leave actually meant, and those responsible for the promises made during that campaign have repeatedly run away from any responsibility for actually delivering them.

The UK could have a second referendum once the details of the deal were on the table. It is unlikely that it will, simply because of the cost to the political careers of senior government figures. It is a decision taken in the best interests of party leaders, not the country.

Answer 2

First, holding a second referendum for Leave/Remain would be a clear denial of democratic choice and a bad signal for future referendums:

• Once the majority has chosen, everybody will suffer the consequences. That means that everyone has the same interest: working so the consequences of this choice will be the best for everyone.
• If we could vote again each time the consequences appears to be worse than expected, then the referendum's loser would have an interest into pulling everything down. In my opinion this is what is happening today: some people against Brexit (European side and British side) may want to show the Leave side that it was a bad choice, so they regret it and ask for a second chance.

Then, holding a referendum about the terms of the negotiation would be very difficult. There is no clear line between hard and soft Brexit:

• For some people, the immigration subject is more important than the economic one. For others it will be the control of the financial market. Nobody will really agree on what is a hard or soft Brexit. These words are used by journalists and politics to simplify complex and multiple political ideas.
• Holding a referendum in oversimplified terms would be a disaster.
• And a very simple thing: There is no possible negotiation if you already voted on the terms of negotiation...

Answer 3

Timing

One big issue to consider is timing. If now is the start of November 2018, there needs to be:

1. Agreement on the idea of a second referendum

   There needs to be political will to hold a new referendum, which currently does not exist.

   • Let's assume this takes 1-2 months to change, so by the end of 2018.

2. Legislation

   The 2016 referendum took 7 months to prepare, though this included a summer recess. Potentially some time could be saved by re-using work done for that referendum. However there are also numerous cases\allegations of spending irregularities including arguments over the spending rules, and the question or questions proposed this time far look more complex, so potentially the new referendum could take longer to prepare than for 2016.

   • Let's guess 7 months, like before

3. Campaign and Vote

   The Electoral Commission have recommended there should be at least 6 months between legislation and polling day.

   • Let's assume this is allowed, to avoid allegations of unfairness

Then given the above the second referendum can take place at the start of February 2020. Only at that point you have the feedback desired to feed into the UK's negotiating strategy.

Answer 4

Division sows defeat

For a long time, nobody knew what the plan was for Brexit. It's hard to justify holding a second referendum when the plan for how to implement the results of the first one doesn't even exist.

Then Theresa May put forth a plan. And Parliament didn't like it. Had she wanted to, she might have put her weight behind a second referendum, saying 'I tried my best, it can't be done, are we sure we want to do this?'

But she didn't. Instead, Boris Johnson became the new Prime Minister. For awhile, both sides were equally paralyzed and nothing happened. Then a new election was held.

And in this election, Boris Johnson got all the pro-Brexit people to line up behind him and support his plan. No such thing happened to the folks who never wanted to leave. The main other party in the election was split, with some of its constituency supporting Brexit and other parts very opposed.

If someone had said "Vote for me, I'm the anti-Brexit candidate, I will hold a second referendum and then quit and call new elections" they might have united the anti-Brexit vote behind them.

Nobody did that, so the pro-Brexit forces were united, and the anti-Brexit forces were not. So the pro-Brexit forces won a decisive majority. They aren't going to hold a second referendum, because they ran on a platform of 'get Brexit done'.

Answer 5

Now that it's 2019 I can give an updated answer. We have just had another election in the UK with Labour offering to give that second referendum.

Based on the results and the reduced vote share Labour gained, I can hazzard that offering a second referendum was an unpopular proposal. The conservative partys slogan was "Get Brexit done" and part of their platform was that the results of the original referendum must be respected.

The conservatives won in a landslide, putting the option of a second referendum to rest for a long time. After the latest election results, it would be seen as very foolish to offer another referendum again, as all the pro Brexit voters would vote for the conservatives again.

The anti Brexit vote was split, and so there aren't enough votes to get that second referendum. I doubt it will be offered again soon, in light of the huge defeat Labour suffered.

Answer 6

Why doesn't the UK hold a second referendum to clarify what the electorate wants?

Because of the original referendum. Despite it being illegal and marred by misinformation it did show that there is a substantial part of the population who want some form of "split" with Europe. There is also a substantial part of the population that believes that a split with Europe is a very bad idea

Re-running the referendum isn't going to change this fundamental fault line in UK political opinion

The referendum result itself is not the real problem that the UK faces at the moment. It is the lack of compromise on both sides to find a moderate solution to the divided UK society we have

Having the referendum again would simply reinforce this division