For the most part the ones pushing the idea that white farmers are under assault by the black majority is the organization Afriforum. At first other organizations tried to debunk their stats and Afriforum responded with these rebuttals: http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/farm-murders-factchecking-the-factcheckers
The East-West divide
This comparison of the murder rate of “white farmers” with the overall murder rate nationally is however inadequate. Overall averages can create a distorted impression if low levels of victimisation in certain areas offset high levels in others, and vice versa. There is in fact a huge difference in the number of farm murders depending on whether you look at the situation in the west or east of the country - two halves of South Africa that have quite distinct histories, populations, and land settlement patterns.
According to recently released SAPS statistics, over the past five years sixty-percent of all farm attacks, and 56 percent of farm murders, occurred in just three provinces: Gauteng, KwaZulu Natal and the North West. This is also supported by the following map by AfriForum which plotted where each farm murder they (and TAU SA) recorded occurred in the 2016/17 reporting year. If you draw a line due north up from Port Elizabeth to Mafikeng, you will see that seventy of seventy-four recorded murders occurred east of that line, and all of four to the west of it. This despite the fact that most individually white-owned land (by extent) falls in the western part of the country.
In addition he adds a table called
Murder rate of white farmers by province vs overall provincial murder rates:
An analysis of the provincial murder rate vs. the rate of murders of white farmers by province allows one to control for this geographical effect to some extent. In the three more “westerly” provinces - Western Cape, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape – along with the Free State, there were eight white farmers killed, according to TAU SA’s count, at a rate of 36 per 100 000, only 0,8 times the overall murder rate (47,3 per 100 000) for this area. By contrast in 2016/17 there were 43 “white farmers” murdered in the five more easterly provinces combined - Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, KZN and Mpumalanga - at a rate of 173 per 100 000. This was 6.2 times the murder rate (28 per 100 000) for this area. The high rate in the east offsets the low rate in the west to bring the average down to 108 per 100 000.
I should note that this organization has fumbled in recent months in regards towards this: http://www.2oceansvibe.com/2018/09/13/what-the-latest-sa-crime-stats-tell-us-about-farm-murders/
The real figure is 46, the South African Police Service (SAPS) told Parliament this week as part of its annual crime statistics release.
The difference between 400 and 46 is so huge that even Afriforum, who have spent the last while lobbying overseas on the plight of white farmers, had to concede
So, what is the truth then? Do any of these stats sound right? If not, why?