The majority of Scottish people voted for remaining in the EU. What are the possible scenarios regarding the Scottish people's situation post Brexit? For example,is the scenario where Scotland organizes a referendum to leave the UK actually plausible? What other scenarious are being discussed?

1 Answer 1


Is the scenario where Scotland organizes a referendum to leave the UK actually plausible?

See Could Westminster block the possibility of a referendum on Scottish independence?

Basically the three options are "legitimate (popular)", "legitimate (fiat)", and "illegitimate (UDI)".

It's certainly possible for the UK government to simply legislate independence for Scotland as ordinary law, since there's no consititutional obstacle for this. Nobody is asking for this, so it's implausible.

It seems very likely that campaigning for a second referendum would begin immediately after Brexit, if Brexit happens. The current conservative government is not inclined to be reasonable about this, so it's unlikely to get anywhere until the next general election. It is possible that the 50 SNP MPs may end up with decisive votes - after all, that's how the DUP have disproportionate influence at the moment.

UDI is far outside SNP policy. It didn't work for Catalonia, and even if it did work it would be expensive and messy. This is implausible unless the UK actually collapses as a functioning state.

  • Could you define UDI?
    – phoog
    Commented Feb 14, 2019 at 16:49
  • 1
    Sorry, "unilateral declaration of independence" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unilateral_declaration_of_independence
    – pjc50
    Commented Feb 14, 2019 at 16:51
  • I would suggest to edit the main text of the answer. First use with the full name and the link, the abbreviation afterwards.
    – o.m.
    Commented Feb 14, 2019 at 17:48
  • Nitpick, but the UDI situation for Catalonia is subject to a prohibition written into the Spanish constitution, the British constitution is unwritten and based on convention, they aren't analogous Commented Feb 14, 2019 at 22:57

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