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I found this on a forum posted in January this year:

Sky poll

Sample size 7834

Do you know what No Deal Brexit means?

  • Exit EU without agreement 63%
  • We stay in the EU 26%
  • No idea 4%
  • Nobody knows 7%

Is this poll genuine? (I can't find the original.) Furthermore, is the same level of confusion reflected in other/newer polls?

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    It's going to be difficult to prove conclusively that such a poll doesn't exist somewhere, but it doesn't appear in the list of Sky Data polls, and 7834 is a ridiculously huge sample size for a properly organised poll, which normally run with sample sizes of 1000 or so. news.sky.com/info/sky-data – origimbo Mar 20 '19 at 18:41
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    Similar question on Skeptics.SE: skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/43262/… – Andrew Grimm Mar 20 '19 at 19:48
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    @AndrewGrimm: thanks, the answer there is a bit terse though. – Fizz Mar 20 '19 at 19:53
  • A bigger problem would be how many understand what "Exit EU without agreement means"? – Jontia Mar 21 '19 at 9:14
4

YouGov conducted a similar poll about no-deal (and other Brexit-related terms) in January of 2019. Rather than asking people what it means, it asked how familiar they were with a set of Brexit outcomes. The results are summarised in the figure below.

If we compare it to the other options, we see 'no-deal' is the option more people are familiar with (going by the bright purple only, or the bright and faded purple combined) than any of the other options.

According to this poll, 74% of people know what 'no-deal' means, at least to some extent. It doesn't exactly correspond to the result in the question, but it's not super different either.

enter image description here

The full results of this poll can be found here.

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  • But this wouldn't then uncover if people "know" what "no deal" brexit is but it turns out they're thinking it's "stay in the EU", which is what the OPs poll was trying to determine. I.e the top two answers from that poll were for people who "know" what brexit means – Damien_The_Unbeliever Apr 1 '19 at 11:34
  • @Damien_The_Unbeliever that's true. This is only a partial answer which provides more information on the public's understanding at the time. – JJ for Transparency and Monica Apr 1 '19 at 11:41
  • Did they actually make polled people take an exam to determine if they actually know? Otherwise it's more likely to estimate prevalence of Dunning-Kruger effect. – M i ech Apr 2 '19 at 13:49
  • @Miech I don't think so. Rather than testing their actual knowledge, these can be good questions if you want to find out how much people think they know (and it's especially useful if you want to compare different options in the same poll). – JJ for Transparency and Monica Apr 2 '19 at 13:53

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