5

Coming as no surprise whatsoever, the 2019 EU elections will be an interesting event in the UK. Notable features seem to be:

  • The election may act as a proxy vote on brexit, and on various parties' approaches to brexit;
  • Other than in Northern Ireland, the election uses a form of voting that somewhat favours larger groups over smaller ones (a party with few votes is likely to get fewer seats than its % of votes would suggest, a party with more votes is likely to get more seats than its % would suggest);
  • Tactical voting is likely to be of more-than-usual significance as a result of these.

To vote tactically in this election, one needs to identify parties supporting one's aim, and then in principle vote for the party polling highest of these, in one's constituency.

But after much searching, the basic information needed for this, has eluded me. I can't find any website that appears to publish polling or survey data at UK constituency levels. But without that information, tactical voting becomes very difficult.

Is such data actually available? If so, where?

  • 2
    It's probably worth noting that while the d’Hondt PR List does favour larger parties, it does so much less strongly that 1st past the post single seat constituency voting does. As such Tactical voting (based on vote counting mechanics) should be present less strongly at EU elections than any other UK elections. – Jontia May 9 '19 at 9:30
  • But the tactical element is still very much present for those viewing the elections as their opportunity to convey by proxy a specific view on brexit or a 2nd referendum. Even if a smaller effect, it's still significant, because in this election, there are several smaller parties having different shades of pro-EU or pro-2nd referendum platform. With just 4-8 seats in many constituencies, it's probably relevant to be able to identify those parties which seem to have a better chance of seats in a given constituency. So I suspect there probably is considerable relevance for those reasons. – Stilez May 9 '19 at 10:02
  • Possibly there's question here in how "tactical voting" is defined. Certainly in the usual context of single seat constituencies tactical voting is usually about making sure a specific individual does not win. That sort of tactical vote is generally not possible under a PR list system. Voting for someone you don't particularly want to make sure you don't get someone you really don't want is one thing. Voting for a party that aligns with a lot of what you want and has a decent chance of getting a seat sounds more like "voting" than "tactical voting" to me. – Jontia May 9 '19 at 10:19
  • 2
    @Jontia - usually tactical voting implies a vote to unseat or diminish a party, but it doesn't have to. Any time a person votes as a 1st (or only) choice, for a party that isn't in reality their 1st choice, in order to further their 1st choice of aim, that's surely tactical. Or maybe it's semantics and we can ignore the point as it's not central to the question? If your constituency has 4 seats, you might vote for an at-least-tolerable party likely to poll >25%, perhaps to keep out an undesired party, rather than waste a vote on your preferred party at 8%. To me that's tactical. – Stilez May 9 '19 at 11:05
3

Assuming by constituency you mean "constituency region for the EU election", then among recent EU election UK wide polls at least the ComRes and Survation polls provide a break-down.

Unfortunately the YouGov tables for the largest recent poll are slightly courser grained, although they may actually be more relevant, since estimates of polling error vary with poll size, and using the common estimate that standard error goes like the inverse square root of the number of people polled, then the data for some of those regions in the smaller polls have 95% confidence regions of about plus or minus 10% for the more popular parties.

| improve this answer | |

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .