In June 2016 17.4 million people voted to "Leave" the EU.
In today's EU elections it is anticipated that about 7 million people will vote for the Brexit parties (Brexit and UKIP). (Edit 29/5/19 The actual result came out at only 5.8 million).
Where have the other ten million gone?
Is this clear evidence that only about 7 of the 17 million voted for a hard, no-deal Brexit?
Many of those ~10 million will simply not vote, others will vote for other parties and some have died.
Turnout in European parliament elections in the UK is typically on the low side, in 2014 it was only 35.6%. In contrast the turnout in the 2016 referendum was 72%. While turnout may be higher for these elections than in 2014, it will still most likely be well below the level seen in the referendum.
We will, however, have to wait for an exit poll to get a reasonable idea of how turnout in today's vote varies between leave and remain voters in 2016. The pre-election opinion polls are predicting a fairly large range of results due mainly to difficulties in predicting turnout.
There will also be a non-zero number of leave voters who vote for other parties today, particularly the Tories, but also Labour and even some for explicitly pro-remain parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK). In Scotland and Wales voters also have the option of the SNP and Plaid respectively. Finally, in Northern Ireland the political system is almost totally distinct to the rest of the UK and voters there chose from a separate set of parties. Again, we really need to wait for exit polls to see how many 2016 leave voters vote for each party as the pre-election polls are somewhat scattered.
Finally, ~0.5million people die in the UK each year (so ~1.5 million since the referendum). Given the demographic of leave voters skews old, a significant number of leave voters will have passed away.
For all the nonsense talked around sovereignty, the only election that actually has the power to affect whether the UK remains in the EU or not is the Westminster one.
And I think Brexit voters recognize this. Voting for the Brexit party at the EP elections is a protest vote that has a small ability to sabotage the EU, but cannot of its own change the status of the UK.
Wanting a "hard no-deal" Brexit does not imply voting for either UKIP or Brexit, nor does voting for U/B imply wanting no-deal. There will be people who vote U/B to protest that Brexit didn't occur in March, but don't want no-deal.
We simply don't know what kind of Brexit the 17M Leave voters wanted in 2016, because that wasn't the question asked.
Farage and Rees-Mogg will likely continue to claim that there are 17M people who want a no-deal Brexit, no matter what happens in the polls today.
After the referendum of 2016, those who vote against the EU become Brexiters. But, the main question that arises is how do voters think about the EU now? The polls show a major change in favor of Remain. The breeze is by all accounts in the sails of campaigners hoping to keep Britain in the EU as, for the first time in the history of the Brexit impasse, they see indications of the open mindset moving to support them. Now, what UK Thinks puts Remain ahead, by 54 to 46, with for all intents and purposes each survey led in the previous year or so recording a little Remain lead. People think, If we leave, there will be huge uncertainty and an unbalance period of time which causes thousands of jobs will be lost. Our necessary needs will be undermined and ensuring trade deals with the rest of the world will take time to last. It’s our democratic right to change the decision so, we think we should stay.
