How much bargaining power do countries like Greece have on their debt settlement with rich EU countries? What are the things they could bargain for in their own interests and what are the things they are unlikely able to bargain for? Do they have any leverage, or can we say that the creditor countries have all the leverage? This question is of particular interest, because I am wondering if the Euro as a currency is doomed to fail.
Presumably, a lot (in the past).
French, German, etc banks were exposed in "toxic" Greek (and other EU countries with notoriously high debts) bonds.
EU countries like Italy had(have) debts that dwarf the absolute numbers of Greek debt.
Officials were facing a conundrum over a problem of whose the severity was unlike anything they have seen before or knew how to deal with.
The very nature of the union, ie an amalgam of emphatically differing countries whose elected EU officials also had to keep in mind the opposition of any solution they approved within their own country and short term political costs, contributed to the indecisiveness and lack of determined solutions.
Solutions offered were anemic, contrarian to growth and often times not executed properly by the Greek administration. This, of course, led the way for speculators unconvinced of the prescribed medicine to bet against Greece.
Should a Grexit occur in the 2010-2014 era, when all of the above were at play simultaneously then the aftermath would domino to other countries, especially Italy which even now boasts a 2.5tril debt at 131.2% of its GDP and the results would be unpredictable at best.
In the current wider economic climate, given the full compliance nowadays to anything the EU insists on, even to the continual detriment of its citizens, and having signed a series of memorandums that bind the country to slowly bleed and perpetually refinance loans for nearly 40 or more years, which the political party that will take over is looking to conserve, I would say none .