Recently, in the United Kingdom European Union Parliamentary elections, the Brexit Party won the most seats, with 30.5% of the vote. There are claims from Nigel Farage and others that the Brexit Party would also win in a snap general election were one to be called while others commented that EU elections are often "protest votes".
Recent polling does suggest that the Brexit Party has a slight lead, seemingly surging after their EU elections win.
In the 2014 EU elections, UK Independence Party similarly won the most seats, with 26.6% of the vote. However, in the following year, it only won 1 seat in the House of Commons, with 12.6% of the vote.
- Is it true that British voters are more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections?
- In other words, is UKIP's performances in the 2014 EU elections / 2015 general election cited above the norm or an outlier?
- Why are British voters more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections?
- Is there any evidence to suggest that the Brexit Party might face the same fate as what UKIP faced in 2015 should a snap general election be called this / next year or does the Brexit Party have a real chance at forming the government (evidence can be polling-based, etc.)?