Are Northern Ireland Unionists allied to England&Wales or Scotland?

Question

Hypothetically, the United Kingdom has decided to separate, Czechoslovakia style, into England-and-Wales and Scotland. The UK ceases to exist with the two new countries as equal successor nations.

In Northern Ireland, the Nationalist community would prefer to join (The Republic of) Ireland. Which new country would the Unionist community prefer?

(For the purposes of this hypothetical, Brexit never happens and Queen Elizabeth II becomes Queen of the two new countries. I'm more interested in the long term rather than considering temporary blips.)

I understand that there isn't going to be a single definitive answer that 100% of that community are going to agree with. I'm interested if there have been any studies that have evaded my searches or simply the opinion of someone close to or part of that community.

UPDATE: Please don't get hung up on the hypothetical scenario or how likely it is. I pose it only to enable the question of where the loyalties of the Unionist community lie.

Answer 1

The situation as you describe is unimaginable.

England+Wales is much larger than Scotland, a separation could never be an equal split. England and Wales would be universally seen as the successor to the UK and Scotland as a newly independent state.

However if we accept this hypothesis, and suppose that the constituents of Great Britain have decided to create a legal fiction of an equal division, then this supposes that a referendum has been held throughout the UK. So we also have to suppose a massive change in public opinion in England.

Given all these hypotheses, one can hardly predict how public opinion would also change in Northern Ireland. The current position of the majority is to remain in the UK, and England and Wales would be seen as the UK, so the Unionist community would choose to remain in a Union with England, and not with Scotland. But in the situation you describe any thing is possible.

It is analogous to asking "If the UK splits from the EU in a Czech style divorce, does Spain stay in union with France and Germany, or with the UK"

Answer 2

Let's not forget the UDI option. An independent Northern Irish state, which some have asserted as being the only way to settle differences between the religious traditions once and for all.

If old "British" Ulster stands apart from the mother country, the mere need to coöperate -- in order to survive -- would exceed those differences which were responsible for the rancour and violence of the not so distant past.

Though I'm an American, I fancy myself a Nationalist where Ireland is concerned. I don't think an independent Northern Ireland is all that viable, but I hold that it's one of the possible outcomes.

Answer 3

The UK ceases to exist with the two new countries as equal successor nations.

I would like to frame challenge this, partly because I believe the answer is "England and Wales" regardless of what the split looks like, and partly because people forget how complicated the UK and its dependent territories is.

It's not just England+Wales+Scotland+NI. The recent EU negotiations have included on the formal documents Gibraltar (which has ended up in Schengen!) and the sovereign bases in Cyprus. All of the overseas territories have a relationship with Westminster for defense and varying levels of financial, administrative, and diplomatic support.

Nobody in the Scottish independence movement has expressed a desire to have a share of those territories and responsibilities, and those who see independence as decolonization are actively opposed to the idea. To some extent, the fact that the UK still operates the leftovers of an empire is part of the reason for independence in the first place: it results in a highly centralized, paternalist, distant state. In which Scotland is not an equal partner with other parts of the UK, or a distinct and constitutionally defended federal arrangement such as the Swiss Cantons or the German Länder.

The only non-fantasy approach to Scottish independence involves the remains of the Empire remaining attached to Westminster, including Northern Ireland.

The unionists themselves, if you ask them, are loyal not to England but to Britain, complete with all the trappings and the Union Flag.

For the purposes of this hypothetical, Brexit never happens

Well, that's already happened and isn't going to be reversed any time soon.