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It seems to me that the outcome of a UK general election in the next few months will depend in no small part on whether Nigel Farage will run (his party) against Johnson's Conservatives or support him/them instead given the hard-line turn on Brexit in the Conservative party following Johnson's accession to the leadership thereof, followed by the recent explosion of "Brexit rebels" from the Conservatives. (This also assuming Brexit doesn't happen before the general election.)

So, has Nigel Farage given any recent indication whether he intends to contest a general election or will he pitch in for the Conservatives, now that they've turned into Brexit hardliners?

  • Don't forget the other party that was Farage's previous shell for personal ambition: UKIP. While it is being treated as a discarded toy by the media it still has a large number of MEPs and will I believe field candidates at the next Westminster election. – pjc50 Sep 6 at 21:54
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    @pjc50 en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/… UKIP has no MEPs since the 2019 election. Though a number of previously UKIPers are now Brexit Party MEPs. – Jontia Sep 7 at 13:40
  • I think we need some evidence that the outcome will depend on the Brexit party. The leave vote would be split between Brexit Party and Conservatives, but Remain is split between Labour and Liberal Democrat. The last polls I saw (possibly have changed) suggested that Conservatives are still ahead of Labour (mostly because the leave vote seems less evenly split?). Of course there’s a bit more nuance here. – Tim Sep 7 at 14:32
  • @Tim this map of Battlegrounds for 2017 gives an insight into the key role of Brexit Party. Labour/LibDem marginal are rare. Both parties key targets are conservative seats. B/C split vote is a major boost. Additionally note the targets for Cons in Leave voting NE areas. If they cannot scoop Brexit voters, those targets are out of reach. – Jontia Sep 7 at 14:45
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Somehow I missed this news yesterday. Farage was interviewed by the BBC. He basically publicly invited Johnson to (coalition, presumably) talks... Farage said that Johnson

"cannot win an election, whenever it comes, if the Brexit Party stands against him."

Interestingly, Farage also said he had no conversation with Johnson since the latter became PM.

He finally described the deal that he is looking for with Johnson as a "non-aggression pact", promising to not put forth Brexit Party candidates in areas where Conservatives could win, if Johnson commits to a no-deal Brexit.

3

As reported here https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/nigel-farage-brexit-party-no-deal-commons-vote-boris-johnson-video/ just a few days ago, Nigel Farage has said that if Boris is backing a "no deal" then the Brexit party will not stand against the Conservatives

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