The UK government has released a redacted copy of the Yellowhammer report.

Leaving aside the legality of it being redacted (Parliament requested full disclosure), are there any indications of what the redacted section (point 15) is about?


The document is nearly identical to the one leaked to the Sunday Times in August.

The two main differences appear to be that:

  1. The leaked document says it's a baseline scenario while the released document says it's a worst case scenario.

  2. Point 15 is not redacted in the leaked document.

Assuming the point identical in both documents, one of the Sunday Times journalists (the one who reported the leak if I'm not mistaking) tweeted point 15's contents (emphasis mine):

Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.


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