In 2024, I am projecting the Democrat to win approximately 52.8% of the popular vote. However, I’m not sure about the Electoral College. If that number is true, I expect it to be concentrated in urban and to a lesser extent suburban areas while the Republican candidate is spread out, like the 2016 and 2012 elections. Winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college is called an electoral college inversion, and given that number, how likely would that be?
Note: the original predicted 53.05%, but this is adjusted for Republican enthusiasm. The webpage containing the image is: How Will Racial Minorities Shape Future Elections?.