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I am thinking about three possible outcomes of the impeachment process in the short term:

  1. Nothing happens eventually

  2. Trump is removed but Republicans keep the presidency

  3. Trump is removed and Democrats take over

Based on the official policies of the two parties, in each of the three cases can anything said about the possible effect on the US-Ukraine relationship and the involvement of US in the Ukrainian conflict (financial/military support, etc)? Is there any expected difference in these scenarios at all? Is there any scenario in which for the US leadership it does not really worth to maintain its support?

2

The U.S. is part of NATO and NATO supports Ukraine.

Relations with Ukraine,04 Nov. 2019.

A sovereign, independent and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s and have since developed into one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. Since 2014, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cooperation has been intensified in critical areas.


How might the impeachment process affect the US-Ukraine relationship and the US support of Ukraine in the war?

There is no reason to think that the U.S. position would change, regardless of who is president of the U.S.


On December 9, 2019, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the border conflict. The meeting will be in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in attendance. "The Trump administration, which Zelenskiy had hoped to recruit in his negotiations with Putin, is distracted and immobilized by the impeachment process."1


1The Stakes For Ukraine Are High In Monday's Summit Between Putin And Zelenskiy, December 6, 2019.

  • 1
    "NATO supports Ukraine" - well, until Russia takes Crimea. If that's "one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships", that's very revealing about NATO as a whole, and not in a good way. Especially given that Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons they inherited from the USSR (a HUGE arsenal...) in exchange for NATO guarantees of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty. Of course, the Russians also guaranteed that too... – Just Me Dec 6 '19 at 21:33

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