Which Democratic presidential candidate would benefit by winning the New Hampshire primary but would also be a weak candidate in the November election against Trump? Please avoid opinion-based answers and refer to actual poll results in support of your answer if possible.
Registered Democrats and Republicans are about equally represented in New Hampshire (28% and 29% respectively) but the single biggest voting bloc is “Undeclared” voters at 42% as of Feb 4, 2020. Under New Hampshire voting law, Undeclared voters may temporarily register with either party at the polls on primary day, and then may revoke their party affiliation as soon as their vote is cast, becoming once again Undeclared. The process is quick and easy and is a completely normal and expected part of New Hampshire primary day.
Republican-leaning Undeclared voters of New Hampshire have little practical reason to vote Republican in Tuesday’s primary, since Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential candidate. But these Republican-leaning Undeclared voters could vote in the Democratic primary with the intention of boosting a candidate who would be weak against Trump. This only makes Machiavellian sense if the candidate has a reasonable chance of winning the nationwide Democratic candidacy for president.
So who, among all the Democratic candidates, would that be? I expect that candidate to do better than the polls are predicting due to Republican-leaning Undeclared Machiavellian voters.
