In a 2016 exit poll I saw that 13 percent of house GOP voters said they voted for Hillary Clinton. Only 10 percent of house Democratic voters said they did the opposite.

Was this also true under Obama? Don’t go back any further than 2008 or maybe 2004 because that is when/after most voters slowly stopped splitting tickets. In other words: are Republican voters more likely to vote Democrat than Democratic voters are to vote Republican?

Here is the CNN poll: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

  • 10 v 13 looks well within the margin of error.
    – James K
    Apr 2, 2020 at 21:14
  • That is definitely a possibility. And that is part of why I was asking because we could have more data. In addition the survey size was big Apr 2, 2020 at 21:17
  • I should point out that the poll's actually saying that 13% of House GOP voters did not vote for Trump, while 10% of House Democrat voters did not vote for Clinton. Your question has them the other way around.
    – Joe C
    Apr 2, 2020 at 21:48
  • Let me reword the question Apr 2, 2020 at 21:48

1 Answer 1


The difference between Democrats and Republicans is unlikely to be statistically significant.

According to the 2016 exit poll you cite, 90% of House Democrat voters voted for Clinton, while 87% of House GOP voters voted for Trump.

In the 2012 exit poll, the same figures were 93% for the Democrats and 92% for the Republicans.

Of course, these are both national figures, and we would be better able to give a more definitive answer if there were a breakdown by state. If we saw a consistent breakdown across most of the 50 states, then I'd be better prepared to argue its case. As it stands, the difference could just be down to sampling.

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .