I was looking at Mississippi's electoral map. I noticed that the percent of African-Americans had a close roughly 1:1 correlation with the % of votes in the county cast for Hillary Clinton. The correlation exists in Alabama, but it is not as strong. What is the correlation between a MS county and the percent of votes for Hillary Clinton?

For example, the state is 40% H.Clinton and 37% African-American. The AA number is from the 2010 census.

  • I'm not sure what you mean by correlation. You can look up Clinton's vote share among white voters and black voters in Mississippi easily. What else are you asking about? – divibisan Jun 19 '20 at 19:49
  • Let me explain what I mean. County level Black/African-American population percentage cross referenced with % votes for Clinton in that county. – Number File Jun 19 '20 at 19:50
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    Example at actual county level: Adams County. 56% Clinton and 54% black. – Number File Jun 19 '20 at 19:53

The data is easily downloaded from opendatasoft.com. The correlation is clear as expected, something close to 1:1. Here's a quick plot. Probably the most obvious outlier is Green County, which is 26.4% African American but voted less than 18% for Hillary Clinton. It makes me wonder if there was some kind of voter suppression going on there but I have no direct evidence for that.

EDIT: JamesK has pointed out that Greene County skews heavily male. There are also several outliers in the other direction, like Lafayette County which is 24% black but voted over 40% Democrat in 2016.

scatter plot

  • That makes sense. I think that it might be in that county bc of there being no DMV nearby. – Number File Jun 19 '20 at 20:30
  • And as I look closer, there may be more counties skewed just as far in the other direction, e.g. Lafayette County is 24% but voted over 40% Democrat in 2016. – Brian Z Jun 19 '20 at 20:31
  • Hmm. That's the opposite type of outlier. – Number File Jun 19 '20 at 21:16
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    No, an outlier is an outlier whether it is above or below the trend, and the overall trend here looks pretty close to 1:1. – Brian Z Jun 19 '20 at 21:22
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    According to wikipedia Greene county skews "male" (for every 100 adult women, there are 141 men). And men voted disproportionatly for Trump in 2016. I think this explains its outlier status. – James K Jun 19 '20 at 22:11

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