Assuming Trump wins only the states with Republican governors, and the states that divide their electoral votes follow their 2016 patterns, what will be the outcome of the 2020 election?
I referred to Ballotpedia's article on state government trifectas and 270towin.com's preset for the 2016 election to map electoral votes. I set the states according to the party of their governors. This is the result:
The result would be a Democratic victory, 290 to 248.
Seven states with Republican governors (Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia) and four states with Democratic governors (Delaware, Montana, North Carolina, and Washington) will hold gubernatorial elections in 2020. Using the same tools, you can find that:
- If all the Republican-governed states swung Democrat, the result would be a Democratic victory, 328 to 210.
- If all the Democratic-governed states swung Republican, the victory would be a Republican victory, 281 to 257.
- If both of those things happened at once, the result would be a Democratic victory, 299 to 239.
In actuality, Trump lost the election 306 to 232. He lost Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont despite their Republican governors. He won Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, and North Carolina despite their Democratic governors.