I was thinking about the neighborhood of Harlem in New York City. I read that only 3 percent of the voters in this neighborhood are registered as Republicans and over 80% are registered as Democrats. So, I want to know about how the neighborhood voted in the 2016 presidential election. According to the different precincts that I randomly selected, it appears that Trump got ~2.5% of the vote there. Is that an accurate analysis?

  • Where I mean: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harlem#/map/0 – Number File Aug 16 '20 at 21:15
  • Harlem is no longer homogeneous. – JCAA Aug 16 '20 at 21:24
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    I know Harlem well enough without the map. – JCAA Aug 16 '20 at 21:35
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    That was just to make sure. I thought you would but needed to make it clear. – Number File Aug 16 '20 at 21:36
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    Harlem is divided into South, Central and North Harlem with different voting patterns. So your 2.5% does not mean much. In general, New York has voted strongly Democratic for long time. – JCAA Aug 16 '20 at 21:45

This was actually quite tricky to collate. There is no official list that I could find of electoral precincts within Harlem, and I didn't want to do it manually, so I instead used this shapefile for New York's Community Districts. Manhattan Community Board 10 is roughly the correct boundaries for Harlem. I overlayed the district with this shapefile for New York's precincts, which gave me the list I was after.

After that, it was just a matter of matching up the data with the precinct electoral results courtesy of Open Elections. For a Trump vote, I counted any vote for the Republican or Conservative tickets; for a Clinton vote, any vote for the Democratic, Working Families, or Women's Equality tickets.

Using this definition, Harlem placed a total of 1,270 votes for Trump, and 47,965 for Clinton - equivalent to a two-party advantage of D+95. 1,102 votes were placed for other candidates, so Trump attained 2.52% of the overall vote in the neighborhood. Below is a map showing the two-party advantage on a per-precinct basis.

The most Republican precinct in terms of percentage was 022/71, with 19 votes for Trump compared to 364 for Clinton, a two-party advantage of D+90, while the most Democratic precinct was 020/71, with just 6 votes for Trump compared to 741 for Clinton, a two-party advantage of D+98.

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