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I have read that Clinton won NH by 0.4 pp while Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. However, Gallup said that New Hampshire is more liberal than conservative. Is NH the only state that is more liberal than conservative to have voted more Republican than the national average in 2016's presidential election?

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  • The selected answer is based on data that uses self-identified political leanings, rather than absolute data analysis. The result is that the meaning of "liberal" and "conservative" in the Gallup data is probably different than the usual interpretation of the words. This Gallup data could be better described as "More people describe themselves as conservative than liberal" which isn't nearly as surprising, given that many Democrats (colloquially referred to as liberals by most conservatives) consider themselves moderate, whereas many Republicans probably consider themselves conservative. – Onyz Aug 18 '20 at 17:37
  • If you feel that the answer you've selected answers your question as asked, please ignore my reservations. It is your question, after all, not mine. :) – Onyz Aug 18 '20 at 17:38
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Yes. According to Gallup, there are just six states with more self-identifying liberals than conservatives: New Hampshire, New York, Washington, Vermont, Hawaii, & Massachusetts. Of these six states, only New Hampshire voted more Republican than the national difference in vote share of 2.22 pp - it gave Clinton 47.62% of the vote compared to Trump's 47.25% - a difference of 0.37 pp.

Below is the data for those states with a negative Conservative advantage - note only New Hampshire has a negative National Advantage difference.

State         | Conservative (%)
              |    | Moderate (%)
              |    |    | Liberal (%)
              |    |    |    | Conservative advantage
              |    |    |    |     | Clinton Vote (%)
              |    |    |    |     |       | Trump Vote (%)
              |    |    |    |     |       |       | Clinton Lead (pp)
              |    |    |    |     |       |       |       | National Advantage Difference (pp)
New Hampshire | 28 | 36 | 30 | -2  | 47.62 | 47.25 | 0.37  | -1.85
New York      | 27 | 35 | 30 | -3  | 59.01 | 36.52 | 22.49 | 20.27
Washington    | 28 | 37 | 31 | -3  | 54.3  | 38.07 | 16.23 | 14.01
Vermont       | 28 | 36 | 32 | -4  | 55.72 | 29.76 | 25.96 | 23.74
Hawaii        | 22 | 45 | 28 | -6  | 62.88 | 30.36 | 32.52 | 30.3
Massachusetts | 21 | 38 | 35 | -14 | 60.98 | 33.34 | 27.64 | 25.42
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  • So California is not more liberal than conservative? And Oregon too. – Mark Sapir Aug 18 '20 at 16:20
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    I didn't realize this until I checked the source, but the measure of liberalness vs conservativeness is based on self-identification, not vote record or any other objective measure. It may be worth including this information in the answer to prevent the sort of confusion that I experienced, since I think (or hope) that I'm not the only one who could get confused by that phrasing. – Onyz Aug 18 '20 at 17:24
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    @JCAA Why do you say that? – Just Me Aug 19 '20 at 11:52

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