The best thing that would count as data here (as far as I know) are some historical analogies which posit that Nixon won the presidency due to the 1968 riots. YMMV how factual that is (besides the analogy), but there are some academic studies in that direction (see last para[s] in this quote).
“Trump very clearly has decided to build his re-election campaign strategy around that of Richard Nixon and his 1968 campaign. The scene when he went to St John’s church, demonstrating ‘law and order’ as he went, says to me that he has looked at the Nixon victory in 68 and said, ‘This can be one of my paths to re-election.’” [...]
Trump’s mimicry of Nixon is contained right there in the phrase “law and order” – rhetoric that had been familiar in the deep south for decades but which Nixon brought for the first time to the national political stage. In his acceptance speech for the Republican presidential nomination in Miami in August 1968, just a few weeks before Rather was decked in Chicago, Nixon addressed himself to the “forgotten Americans”, the “voice of the great majority – the non-shouters, the non-demonstrators”.
He might just have said: “Whites.”
Nixon spoke luridly about the state of the country, with its “cities enveloped in smoke and flame”. Unveiling the “law and order” catchphrase that was to define his presidential campaign, he vowed to open a new front against the “filth peddlers and the narcotics peddlers who are corrupting this country”. [...]
Nixon’s promise to crack down on the protests was calculated. “He recognised he couldn’t come out and say, ‘I want to dominate black people’, but he could say ‘law and order’. It was a very effective linguistic strategy that worked in 68 and for a long time after.”
Just how effective it was for Nixon is shown in an ingenious piece of academic research by Omar Wasow of Princeton University. Wasow wanted to measure the impact of the violent protests following King’s death on white voting patterns in the 1968 election, so he compared election results from largely white constituencies that had been in close proximity to scenes of rioting with similar white areas where there had been rainfall on the night of the unrest – a well-established dampener of protest passions.
He found a remarkable swing of up to 8% among white voters against Nixon’s Democratic rival, Hubert Humphrey, in those areas where there had been no rain that night. Wasow concluded that, writ large, Nixon’s exploitation of the protests through his “law and order” dog-whistling had essentially handed him the presidency.
So, if it doesn't rain, Trump wins. YMMV.