Has anyone made well-informed, quantitative estimates of the actual electoral impact of rejected mail-in ballots in the 2020 US election?

  • Unfortunately, it's nearly impossible to have a well-informed, quantitative estimate when so much is without precedent. We've never had so many states trying to ramp up large scale mail-in voting at once, all on very short notice, all during a pandemic that has limited the ability of election officials to meet in person. If the New York primary (1 in 5 mail-in ballots rejected) is an outlier and all the swing states manage to get the rejection rate down to a few percent, it could tip a close election. If New York is a bellwether, it'll be nasty. – Justin Cave Sep 13 '20 at 7:03
  • I've removed your answer from the question. Feel free to post your answer as an answer. – Joe C Sep 13 '20 at 7:08
  • You seem to be asking: Has anyone one made a prediction of the impact of the predicted rejected ballots in the forthcoming election; then you further qualify the prediction (of the impact) that it be "well-informed and quantitative". I also am assuming that you are targeting the presidential popular vote, as contrasted with the electoral college. – BobE Sep 14 '20 at 21:34
  • @BobE: I would be happy to see any estimate, but IMO estimates for swing states would be the most interesting. It's of little consequence whether California has a low or high number of rejected ballots. – Ben Crowell Sep 15 '20 at 16:12
  • @JoeC: Not a problem that you cut my estimate, but I wouldn't consider it a self-answer because it isn't any kind of realistic/professional estimate. – Ben Crowell Sep 15 '20 at 16:14

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