I have noticed a phonomenon where progressives typically win in urban, heavily Democratic, and inelastic districts.

An example of this manifesting itself could be Alex Morse losing a primary in one of the most elastic districts while Jamaal Bowman won his in an inelastic district.

Why is this? Is it because geographically small districts are inelastic? (They are.) Is it because swing voters don't like progressives or value incumbency more? Something else?

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    I noticed that you ask a lot of in depth questions. Are you a political researcher for a candidate's campaign? Sep 24 '20 at 0:21
  • I am planning on being one. Sep 24 '20 at 0:22
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    @SurpriseDog I had noticed the same thing and thought he was a recovering sports stats fanatic, going cold turkey w. elections. "No, no, can't think about RBIs. Think about Hillary instead, just like Aubrey Plaza in The To Do List". Sep 24 '20 at 1:16
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    Are elastic district measurements relevant for Primaries? My understanding was the elastic measurements were only relevant for changes in party vote, not inner party candidate selection
    – Jontia
    Sep 24 '20 at 6:13

Progressive candidates tend to win mostly in safe left leaning districts because voters in those districts are more progressive themselves, and because the conventional wisdom among political party operatives is that moderate candidates have a better chance of winning a swing district than progressive candidates.

Safe left leaning districts tend to also be "inelastic" because a shift in political sentiment from far left to moderate left, for example, doesn't influence candidate preference much for most of these voters.

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    Put another way: progressives don't do better in inelastic districts – they do better in more progressive/left-leaning districts, and those districts tend to be more inelastic. Am I understanding this correctly?
    – divibisan
    Sep 24 '20 at 20:39
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    @divibisan Yes. You are understanding this correctly. Progressives do not, for example, do better in right leaning inelastic districts.
    – ohwilleke
    Sep 24 '20 at 21:19

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