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The Lincoln Project and Republican Voters against Trump are generating huge publicity and producing some of the slickest adverts I've ever seen. But is there any evidence that they are having any effect at persuading either Republican voters, or even independents/swing voters, in great numbers? Most polling evidence I've seen shows that Republicans are overwhelmingly supportive of Trump.

Are they actually having an impact, besides just generating lots of publicity and producing slick ads?

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    One thought would be that the people they are targeting no longer identify as Republican (re: your line about polling evidence), which would intensify Trump's hold on those that still do. – Azor Ahai -- he him Oct 16 at 15:04
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    @AzorAhai--hehim It might be better to look at split ticket voters, who are voting for Biden and their Republican Senator. That might give you an idea of Republicans who are turned off by Trump specifically. For example, Republican Senators in MI, ME, and GA are polling better than Trump in their states – divibisan Oct 16 at 15:27
  • @divibisan Well, it doesn't have to be either/or. – Azor Ahai -- he him Oct 16 at 15:50
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    There is very little hard evidence that campaigning decisions within the normal range for major party candidates makes any difference at all. Parsing that out into specific campaign tactics or efforts within the larger collective array of campaigning effort is even harder. – ohwilleke Oct 16 at 17:43
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    There is also a covert social media campaign involving people pretending to be Trump supporters saying stupid, ridiculous things in defense of Trump and this has had a big effect. – Count Iblis Oct 16 at 19:21

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