Define a polling fail s.t.
- a particular candidate C, running in ...
- a particular election E, s.t. ...
- pre-E polls (collectively, averaged) predict C to achieve vote share S0, but ...
- results from E give C vote share S1, s.t. ...
- S0 differs significantly from S1 ((S0 << S1) || S0 >> S1))
Observers of US politics often find instances of polling fails s.t.
[type A] (C is generally perceived to be "left of center") && (S0 >> S1)
i.e., a US correlate of the UK "shy Tory factor". A recent US instance (as of 4 Nov 2020) is the 2020 election for US president. There are however cases where "politically-opposite" behavior has been observed, s.t.
[type B] (C is generally perceived to be "right of center") && (S0 >> S1)
such as the 2012 US presidential election, where the "left-of-center" candidate outperformed his pre-election polls..
My question is: have polling fails as defined here been studied both quantitatively and with regard to left-right political orientation/spectrum? I'm looking for pointers to studies that (e.g.) classify polling fails in a manner similar to my type A and type B (above), and which then compare the numbers of each.
: In US political classification, "left of center" typically includes Democrats as well as persons labeled "liberal" or "progressive." (This is a characterization, not an equation!)
: In US political classification, "right of center" typically includes Republicans as well as persons labeled "libertarian" or "conservative." (Ditto.)
: It's also a case of a US-minority-ethnicity candidate reversing the "Bradley effect", though there are certainly more recent instances (as of 4 Nov 2020) combining both the Bradley and shy-Tory effects (e.g., the Graham-Harrison 2020 election for US senator from SC).