Why was California deemed to be democratic win when only 77 percent of votes tallied?
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6Because the remaining votes aren't enough to cover the gap?– yannisCommented Nov 6, 2020 at 10:02
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I guess that would explain it...if they new the total number of votes to be counted.– IlludiumPu36Commented Nov 6, 2020 at 10:05
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The Associated Press predicted California to have voted for Biden the instant polls closed in California -- i.e., zero percent of the vote tallied. This is a duplicate.– David HammenCommented Nov 6, 2020 at 11:13
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1Related: Why is the AP calling Virginia in favor of Biden even though he's behind on the vote count?– David HammenCommented Nov 6, 2020 at 11:13
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From EXPLAINING RACE CALLS: Presidential race too early to call, "The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of California as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest."– David HammenCommented Nov 6, 2020 at 11:21
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3 Answers
The remaining votes (23%) are not enough to swing the vote in Trump's favor.
votesCast = 8,180,018 (D) + 4,152,425 (R) = 12,332,443
votesExpected = 1.23*votesCast = 15,168,904.89
remainingVotes = votesExpected-votesCast = 2,836,461.89
currentLead = 8,180,018 - 4,152,425 = 4,027,593
Even if Trump wins 100% of the remaining votes in California (extremely unlikely) to win the state, this is still less than the lead Biden has.
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1Just created my account to point out that you made a mistake. The remaining votes as per the picture are 23%, not 33%. The argument is correct none the less (+1).– NacoridCommented Nov 6, 2020 at 13:26
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Oops, sorry, thanks for the clarification. I fixed the calculation. :)– KirilCommented Nov 6, 2020 at 13:39
This question should be closed as a duplicate, but in case it isn't,
You will not find any articles about President Dewey because Dewey did not defeat Truman. It was Harry Truman who defeated Thomas Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. Declarations by news organizations about winners and losers are not official.
In the case of California in the 2020 presidential election, the Associated Press, along with several other news organizations, declared that California had voted for Mr. Biden the instant that polls closed in that state.
answered Nov 6, 2020 at 11:40
This is a press announcement. It is not legally binding. Of course it’s very embarrassing to make such an announcement and then it turns out you were wrong. Right now Alaska could theoretically go to Biden, but the chances for that are so slim that it is declared as “Republican win” and nobody minds. And California was so far ahead for Biden, it was safe to declare it for Biden without fear of later embarrassment.
Right now, there are five states that I wouldn’t dare to declare. And AP doesn’t dare either. And there’s a chance that one or two states would end up so close that a recount would be needed. (Entirely possible that Pennsylvania would end up with less than 10 votes difference).
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The AP perhaps prematurely dared to declare Arizona for Biden. Commented Nov 6, 2020 at 12:26