Party demographic inversions are not uncommon, i.e. when the demographics that make up a party or the ideology of the party invert. It was not long ago that southern states tended to vote Democrat while northern-eastern states tended to vote Republican. The way states generally vote in presidential elections had stayed the same since 2000, i.e. West-coast, Northeast, and northern Midwest blue. Scroll Through Elections Here (top right)

Are we overdue for a political inversion in the near-future?

Since Donald Trump there has been a modest shift in the demographics that make up the Republican party. It was not long ago, 1996-2014, that the wealthier you were and the more educated you were the more likely you were to vote Republican. That demographic has slowly shifted. It is still true that the wealthier you are the more likely you are to vote Republican, though this is less-so the case than historically.

Sources: Education Stats (1994-2017) Income Stats (2012)

The gains below were more intense in the presidential election of 2016 and 2020, and less intense for the non-presidential elections. Note that the source I sent only goes up to 2017. You can see noticeable upticks and downticks right at 2016. This fades a little in 2017. Recent 2020 results confirm the continuation of the trends below.

2020 Republicans Gains:

  • Blue Collar Democrats and Independents
  • Hispanics
  • African Americans

2020 Democrat Gains:

  • Suburban Middle and Upper-Middle class White Republicans and Independents

I know quite a few college-educated Republicans that voted Democrat because of some disagreements Donald Trump. They are likely to vote Republican in 2022. I don't see the Blue Collar collation that Donald Trump gathered voting Republican again. They liked Trump, not so much establishment Republicans. As for Hispanic voters, since they traditionally were more conservative in the past, before immigration issues, it is possible they will remain Republican. Especially if Republicans are soft of immigration issues. The Republican Party historically would get 4-8% of the African American vote. Recently Trump has been hitting 10-12%. I am unsure if this will shift back.

Question 1: Is it likely that the Republican and Democrat Party will revert back to their pre-Trump demographics, or will the demographic shift continue inverting?

Question 2: What has caused past political inversion?

Early Disclaimer: Feel free to suggest edits for this question. Happy to make corrections. For example, I would like to add more sources and bullet points above. Education and income can be a sensitive topic. We should not stereotype a group of people as uneducated or low-income for their political beliefs. Please be mindful that there are great minds on both sides, and politics really comes down to a difference in opinion now days. Republicans and Democrats agree on far more than they disagree on.

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  • 2
    This is a well researched and interesting question. But I don't think there can be an answer. Much depends on things that we can't tell. Will the Republican party move towards the traditional centre? the Tea Party/Libetarian right? The social conservative right? or will it become a Trumpian Anti-immigration party? We don't know, and so we can't answer this question, so +1 and vote to close from me. – James K Nov 8 '20 at 9:04
  • I think you are right. Can't predict the future. I should ask this again as a completely reframed question later: "What causes political demographic inversions?" For example, why and when exactly did the South East become Republican? They used to be heavily Democrat. I would be interested in some older 1800's examples of inversion as well! Thanks! – Matthaeus Gaius Caesar Nov 8 '20 at 9:20
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    It's not even clear there will be a post Trump. At the very least there will be Trumpian Republicans around until the next Presidential cycle, and almost certainly a Trumpian (a Trump?) candidate in the 2024 Republican Presidential primaries. – Jontia Nov 8 '20 at 9:59