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At this point, Biden is the president-elect, with every major network including Fox having called the election in his favor, and with a probable end result of 306 electoral votes to 232 for Trump. That assumes that Biden retains Arizona and wins Georgia, and Trump wins North Carolina and Alaska. That said, a number of commentators and pundits have noted that his margin of victory, which currently is around 3% in the popular vote, is smaller than the polls would have predicted considering that Biden polled at an average of 8.4% over Trump in the days before the election.

However, while most eyes may have been on vote counts in swing states, many other states are still counting, even though their electoral results have not been in doubt. These states are disproportionately Democratic, and if the ballots still being counted are primarily absentee ballots, one might expect them to favor Biden. For instance, California has only counted 86% of its votes, suggesting that about 2.2 million are left to count. We might expect the uncounted ballots to increase or at least change Biden's percentage of the popular vote. On the other hand, there are a few states like Alaska that lean Republican and have also not counted many votes.

Are there any forecasts of Biden's likely eventual margin of victory in the popular vote?

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    He is not the president elect quite yet. We still have a lot if legal nonsense to churn through. – acpilot Nov 9 '20 at 2:58
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    Yes, he is. It is the people who determine that, not newspapers or the courts, and some 290 electoral votes and 75 million people say that he is. I know that some Trump supporters are hoping for some "legal nonsense" because they can't accept that he is capable of losing. But by the same standards that has been applied to basically every candidate, he has lost. – Obie 2.0 Nov 9 '20 at 3:04
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    No, he is not. It is the electoral college voters who determine that. They will, barring a full-scale coup, be informed by the people and (to some extent, this time around) the courts, and the newspapers report what the people have said. But they have not convened yet. If you don't like it, consider moving to a country using for example the Westminister system. – Karl Knechtel Nov 9 '20 at 3:32
  • Ummm, such as Canada? – Obie 2.0 Nov 9 '20 at 4:02
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    @acpilot I suppose the accurate term would be "presumptive President-elect", but that's a mouthful. But it's traditional to treat the election results as real as soon as it becomes clear who will win, rather than actually wait for the Electoral College to put their rubber stamp on it. – Barmar Nov 9 '20 at 6:26

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