In 2016, exit polls showed Clinton getting 70% of the two-party Latino vote but Biden only got 67%. I looked at the exit polls for Florida and the data for the RGV and found that the vote share for Donald Trump among Latinos in those two areas were 35% and 27%, respectively in 2016. Then, they increased to 47% and 40%, respectively. (I decreased the RGV by 2 percentage point because of non-Hispanic white voters favoring GOP more.)

This looks like it is possible, but I am not sure.

  • If not at least say how much of it. Commented Nov 18, 2020 at 13:47
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    RGV: twitter.com/jamesrhenson/status/1324106579214508033 Commented Nov 18, 2020 at 14:06
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    It is worth noting that the rural areas shifted more, so the urban-liberal rural-conservative divide seems to hold true in this area when comparing 2020 to 2016. Hidalgo County, a more populated county, also shifted towards Trump, but unlike many of these counties, Biden got more votes than Clinton. So did El Paso, which had a much smaller shift than any of these. Commented Nov 18, 2020 at 14:18
  • Hispanics are more likely than avg to be affected by covid shutdowns (working in hospitality, meat plants, and restaurants) and likely voted against folks who pushed them.
    – dandavis
    Commented Nov 18, 2020 at 18:26

1 Answer 1


70 -> 67% means "there was no measurable difference.

The error in these polls is typically about 2-3% and somewhat higher this year (due to COVID and early polling made exit polling harder) For a total of about 4-6 when comparing 2 numbers.

So there is no conclusion to be drawn

There was a significant increase among Hispanic voters in Florida (a group that tends to favour the Republican party, they have connections to Cuba, not Mexico)

Similarly Texan Hispanic voters tend to trend red. They often have long roots in the USA and no strong links to Mexican immigrants.

But be that as it may. THe effect you are seeing is within the error bars. It is quite plausible that Biden did better with Hispanics, or not.

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