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Biden is leading in the popular vote by 3.8 percentage points. I am wondering about this topic of states that lean one way relative to the nation. It appears that this is helpful because it shows Electoral College advantage and bias. A preliminary analysis shows NH and MN both losing that status.

I asked an earlier question about 2016 about if 320 electoral votes (that was 2016's total) this set a record. And while it set a modern record, this record was broken in 1968 and was also roughly equaled in 1940.

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    I don't understand the title question, what do you mean, electoral votes? – Azor Ahai -him- Nov 20 at 15:14
  • I mean the total number of electoral votes in all states fitting that description. For example, Texas would count as one for this example, and that # would be 38 in that case. – Michael Mormon Nov 20 at 15:17
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    So you want the sum of all states and CDs that have more republican votes or pct than trump's national vote pct? – Azor Ahai -him- Nov 20 at 15:18
  • The sum of EVs in all states with percentage in two-party vote for Trump exceeding national %. The congressional district only applies to Maine and Nebraska because they have split electoral votes, and 2 are like normal. – Michael Mormon Nov 20 at 15:19
  • So all of the states he won (this is not 1992; anything he won he has more than the about 48% he has nationally) plus any state he lost but it was really close (like AZ and GA)? My question for the OP is what is the relevance of that? – Damila Nov 22 at 1:12
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Thirty-three EV areas voted more Republican than Trump's two-vote share (48.0%), totaling 311 EVs. Data from Cook Political (undated, but downloaded 11/20). Twenty-eight went for Trump overall, but six were called for Biden (PA, GA, MI, AZ, WI, NV). No areas voted less Republican than Trump's two-vote share, but were called for him, so I'm not really sure what the utility of this measure is.

Those jurisdictions, in size order:

  • 38 EVs: TX
  • 29 EVs: FL
  • 20 EVs: PA
  • 18 EVs: OH
  • 16 EVs: GA, MI
  • 15 EVs: NC
  • 11 EVs: TN, IN, AZ
  • 10 EVs: MO, WI
  • 9 EVs: AL, SC
  • 8 EVs: KY, LA
  • 7 EVs: OK
  • 6 EVs: AR, UT, MS, KS, IA, NV
  • 5 EVs: WV
  • 4 EVs: ID
  • 3 EVs: WY, ND, SD, MT, AK,
  • 2 EVs: NE at-large*
  • 1 EVs: NE1*, ME2

* - Nebraska and Maine's two Senator-equivalent EVs are awarded to the statewide winner, this means the votes in NE1 are counted in both NE1 and NE at-large. In other words, the state-wide margin was higher than Trump's average in NE at-large and NE1, but not NE2 (which Biden won).


Code :

library(tidyverse)

vote <- read_csv("cook.csv") %>%
  select(stateid, EV, called, ends_with("_votes")) %>%
  mutate(
    two_party_vote = dem_votes + rep_votes,
    gop_pct = rep_votes / two_party_vote
  )

US <- vote[1, ]

GOP_gt_avg <- vote[-1, ] %>%
  filter(
    gop_pct > US$gop_pct
  ) %>%
  arrange(desc(EV), desc(gop_pct))

table(GOP_gt_avg$called)
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