For a couple of weeks now, the betting market site PredictIt has pretty consistently shown Trump as having a low-double-digit chance of winning the election. However, I was under the impression that:
- Vote counting is effectively finished
- Although many states are close, their margins are large enough such that possible recounts would not affect the outcome
- Although Republicans have initialized many legal cases, many of them have been dismissed, and there has not been sufficient evidence of voter fraud presented, nor could sufficient ballots be thrown out for the overall result to be overturned
- Although electors are rarely faithless, electors are chosen by the party, and so are quite unlikely to vote against their party's (and likely their own) interests, especially when it has a chance of changing the outcome
It seems to me essentially certain that Biden has won. However, everyone participating in PredictIt has a strong financial incentive to make predictions that are as accurate as possible, and the crowd has been fluctuating on odds of Trump winning between 10% and 15%, rather than the 2% or so that I'd expect.
What am I missing? Some people appear to be seeing a path to victory somewhere, and have put significant amounts of money on it, but I don't see where it might lie. What, if any, are the unlikely but not utterly outlandish ways that Trump can still win the Electoral College?