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I read a tweet from the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman saying that NYC had a larger shift towards Trump than any state in the country. It shifted 7.4 points towards Trump compared to his 1st election bid while Hawaii, the state with the largest shift, shifted only 2.7 points.

I want to know how concentrated this shift is. As I asked with Washington DC, I am wondering about changes in distribution. Unlike DC, this is not really being lazy. I looked at a few pieces of precinct level data from 2016 and 2020 (not csv, sorry), and it does seem to be concentrated in a few ethnic enclaves such as Borough Park. The question I wonder is how much because I don't have the time to review the city as a whole.

Here is what I want for both 2016 and 2020 (if possible, not necessarily in this order):

  • median
  • 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles
  • lower and upper quartiles
  • maximum
  • mean
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  • Note how I asked two-party vote. The shift when removing 3rd parties seems to be 10 points or so in NYC. I just really want to know because I feel that it is concentrated in certain areas and just want a factual answer to how much.
    – Number File
    Dec 6 '20 at 15:46
  • "NYC had a larger shift towards Trump than any state in the country": why compare a city to states?
    – gktscrk
    Dec 8 '20 at 13:15
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NYC's Board of Elections reports precinct-level (Assembly District/Elections District) data on their website in csv format. From this, we can calculate the following statistics on Trump's percentage of the two-party vote in 2016 and 2020. In both cases, I've excluded precincts where no votes were cast for either of the two main candidates.

2016

Minimum: 0% (31 precincts)
2.5th percentile: 1.21%
Lower quartile: 3.99%
Median: 8.01%
Upper quartile: 21.66%
97.5th percentile: 71.78%
Maximum: 100% (Precincts 043/87 and 106/82)
Mean: 16.88%

2020

Minimum: 0% (25 precincts)
2.5th percentile: 2.48%
Lower quartile: 8.00%
Median: 15.07%
Upper quartile: 29.67%
97.5th percentile: 77.26%
Maximum: 100% (Precincts 037/46 and 010/40)
Mean: 22.50%

Below is a map showing the shift geographically - precincts shaded in grey indicate that no data was available in that precinct for one of the two elections.

enter image description here

The changes in the distribution of Trump's two-party vote share are perhaps shown a little better by the graph below.

enter image description here

The code used in this answer can be found on GitHub.

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