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I saw a tweet saying that every state that Biden won, there was a larger difference in people voting for Biden and Trump than Clinton and Trump.

It said this held true even in the three states that had statistically significant shifts away from Biden, though two out of those three states shifted significantly towards the Democrats in 2020 in their statewide House votes compared to 2016.

Is this tweet accurate, now that everything's certified?

Note: he won 5 states Clinton lost. This still seems to hold true here but this is dealing with negative numbers. And, based on the context, it means was BIDEN - TRUMP greater than CLINTON - TRUMP in each state carried by Biden?

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    Or won states with negative win margins, or weren't won by Clinton.
    – user35466
    Dec 15, 2020 at 16:41
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    It would be more informative to ask about percentages, since there were generally a lot more people voting this year than in 2016.
    – jamesqf
    Dec 15, 2020 at 17:20
  • That is true, but this is a fact check
    – user35466
    Dec 15, 2020 at 17:26

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Yes, though it's not a meaningful statement.

According to the results by state on wikipedia (2016 results and 2020 results), Biden received more votes than Clinton in every state, not just the ones he won. Of course, Trump received more votes in every state in 2020 than he did in 2016 too – turnout was just really high across the board.

Slightly more significant is the fact that Biden also received a larger percentage of the vote than Clinton in every state except for Kentucky.

Due to the low levels of third-party voting (1.44% in 2020 vs 4.35% in 2016), however, Trump also received a larger percentage of the vote in 27 states (though usually by a small margin), including several that flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020: FL, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, UT, VT, WA, WV, WI, and WY

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I saw a tweet saying that every state that Biden won, there was a larger difference in people voting for Biden and Trump than Clinton and Trump.

Of the 26 states/DC Biden won, more people voted for him than voted for Clinton in 2016. As well, the Democrats' share of the total (i.e. not two-party) vote in all 26 states/DC increased.

Total votes:

enter image description here

Percent of vote:

enter image description here

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  • If you find me the four-year population growth by state, I'll adjust the first graph.
    – Azor Ahai -him-
    Dec 15, 2020 at 18:28
  • I think you should read what I wrote. For example, a 21-10 win out of 31 votes vs a 42-24 win would be by more votes but by less percentage.
    – Number File
    Dec 16, 2020 at 19:17
  • @NumberFile I'm a little confused by what you're trying to tell me, but NV and DC didn't shift toward Trump in terms of % vote, unless you are accounting for turnout? At least not in the data I used.
    – Azor Ahai -him-
    Dec 16, 2020 at 20:17
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It seems both of the previous answers addressed the increase in total votes and total percentage, but did not answer the original question about the vote difference between Trump and his opponent in the two elections.

The original question asked to verify that in "every state that Biden won, there was a larger difference in people voting for Biden and Trump than Clinton and Trump." and later clarified "was BIDEN - TRUMP greater than CLINTON - TRUMP in each state carried by Biden?"

I just copied the vote totals as listed today on Wikipedia for the 2016 and 2020 elections into a spreadsheet and calculated the "D Vote - R Vote".

The claim appears to be true. In only 12 states + NE-3 district, did Trump's total vote margin over his opponent increase: Fla., Utah, Tenn., Idaho, Ark., Ohio, NE-3 W.Va., Ala., Miss., Wyo., La., S.D. All of those went for Trump (indicated by N/A in the "Satisfied" column, as these are not relevant to the tweet.)

In the remaining states and districts, Biden's margin over (or under) Trump (in raw votes) exceeded Clinton's margin over (or under) Trump: N.D., Mont., Nev., S.C., ME-2, Iowa, NE-1, Alaska, Okla., Ky., NE-2, D.C., Nebr. †, Hawaii, N.M., R.I., Ind., Kan., Wis., ME-1, Del., Vt., Maine †, N.H., Mo., Ill., N.C., Ariz., Pa., Conn., Ore., Mich., Texas, N.J., Minn., Ga., Va., N.Y., Wash., Md., Colo., Mass., Calif. This includes all the states Biden one (marked TRUE and a reduced margin of victory for Trump (marked N/A).

Table of calculations

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  • It makes sense that a state won by the same candidate would be won by more votes if it was won by a large margin both times and the swing wasn't particularly large, as was the case in Wyoming and Hawaii.
    – Number File
    Dec 17, 2020 at 12:31

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